Brisbane’s property market continued to show resilience through May, but the feel of the market has shifted. In this episode, Melinda and Scott unpack what is changing on the ground, why some buyers are taking a more cautious approach, and why Brisbane continues to behave differently from other major capital city markets.
They discuss:
- The impact of Federal Budget uncertainty on buyer confidence
- Why some investors are pausing or reassessing their next steps
- Why first home buyers may have a window of opportunity
- The continued strength of Brisbane’s unit market
- What tight rental conditions may mean for tenants and investors
- Why national property headlines do not always reflect the Brisbane market
- The importance of understanding local suburb and property-level differences
- Why asset quality, location, and long-term fundamentals still matter
With changing conditions, ongoing uncertainty, and strong underlying demand, this episode is a timely reminder that successful property decisions are rarely made by reacting to headlines alone.
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Transcript
0:00: Brisbane’s property market continued to record positive value growth through May 2026, yet the landscape has shifted noticeably since the start of the year.
0:08: We are going to cover what is changing here in Brisbane, but also what the data is still showing us in today’s episode of the Brisbane Property podcast.
0:17: Hello everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Brisbane Property podcast with Scott and Melinda Jannison, and it’s market update time for May 2026.
0:26: Certainly is, and, of course, there’s been a few changes.
0:29: Throughout May that we’re going to be talking through in today’s episode, and we are going to talk through the data from totality, some from SQM Research, and some from PropTrack, that, reconfirms that despite all of the headwinds in the market across Brisbane right now, in May, Brisbane has still recorded positive price growth, in the house market and the unit market.
0:53: Across the board.
0:55: Now, of course, most settlements are in Brisbane are 30 days, so this typically represents transactions that were taking place in April.
1:04: and remember in April, we were starting to get some leaked information about what some of those proposed changes may have been for the budget, but the real budget commentary did not come out until after the 12th of May, so perhaps, In next month’s update, we will see what was happening in May reflected in the data, so yeah, let’s let’s go through what the, the data’s showing us for this month.
1:27: It it’s been, before we get into the data, it’s been an interesting month where we’ve seen probably in the lead up to the budget, then the budget announcements, and there’s been some investors especially who have been a little bit sort of cautious of what they’re doing.
1:42: we’ve also probably seen, on the back of that a lot of national headlines, which I think is an interesting one.
1:49: we always talk about markets within markets and different markets everywhere throughout Australia, throughout Brisbane.
1:54: Like there’s all different markets everywhere, and I think a lot of the headlines do talk nationally about, the, the property market as one as a whole, whereas Brisbane, as we say, always have and, and we’ll continue to say it is a very different market.
2:10: As you said, other markets have not been as positive, in the month, and we’ll go through that data shortly, whereas Brisbane still has been and is still fairly strong.
2:19: But a different diff definitely a different feel, not only from us as buyers agents, but also speaking to sales agents.
2:27: It is a diff different feeling in the market a bit as well.
2:29: Yes, since the budget, was handed down, there’s definitely been an immediate and a material effect on.
2:36: Buyer confidence in Brisbane, it, it’s, goes without saying that there’s a lot of property investors that are very unsure about whether they should be moving forward.
2:45: Some are seeking advice from their tax accountants and financial planners.
2:49: Some are actually changing structures, and others are just paralyzed, and not moving.
2:54: Now, we’re also seeing a lot of uncertainty from other buyers that have been very active in the market as well.
3:02: First home buyers.
3:02: Less confident, simply because of some of those headlines that are existing, and yet now is the opportunity for first home buyers to jump.
3:09: There’s a lot more, opportunity to buy well when those investors are out of the market.
3:15: So, you know, if you are a first home buyer, the opportunity to buy well, perhaps, is now, and when we’re talking buy well, we’re not seeing significant bargains across Brisbane, that’s not what I’m talking about.
3:26: I’m talking about buying with less competition.
3:29: but let’s, you know, let’s not jump around the bush.
3:33: The media response off the back of the budget has been quite overwhelming, and for many buyers who were on the cusp of acting, whether they were investors or home buyers, it doesn’t really matter.
3:45: There’s a lot of nervousness out there in the market at the moment, and, you know, we’re definitely seeing a lot of buyers pause and take a wait and see approach.
3:54: Yeah, I think.
3:55: whilst we’re talking about that, I, I, I think that you, you are seeing a lot of, investors that are, have probably a bit more confidence, I suppose, they’re just looking at their structures, how they wanna structure things, how they want to set things up.
4:09: It’s not like they’re saying I’m not going to buy, they’re just reassessing things, setting things up correctly, and as Melinda touched on, we’ve been in a market here in Brisbane feels like since COVID.
4:21: where most properties are going to multi-offer, you’ve got so many offers on happening on property, auction demand, so many people registering and bidding, so the competition has been almost frightening sometimes for people.
4:34: when we’re talking about, and I remember going back 35, 40 offers on a property at a time.
4:40: I mean that that is amazing numbers.
4:43: So as you just touched on then, now is actually not a bad time because if you’re in the position to be able to buy, and you’ve got the confidence and you’re ready to buy, you you’re actually doing it without that as much competition.
4:56: So it gives you a bit more opportunity that way, as you said, not a bargain but, It’s definitely, conversations, maybe negotiations, where you can actually have that where it’s just a lot less stressful.
5:06: Let’s also not forget that in May we also see, saw that cash rate increase again by a further 25 basis points.
5:14: So we’re back to where we were when, interest rates hit their cyclical peak just last year.
5:20: the three, rate drops that occurred off the back of that, have now, that we’ve now gone back up to, to where we were.
5:27: Worse.
5:27: So, the other, thing is that a lot of people are very nervous about the fact that rates are likely to still go up a little further than where they are sitting now.
5:36: So, that creates a lot of, hesitation, and it creates uncertainty in the market.
5:43: Of course, we still don’t have a resolution in the Middle East, and we’ve still got oil price pressures and cost of living pressures.
5:50: So all of these are real headwinds for the Brisbane market.
5:53: But what I will say, Fundamentally, nothing has changed in terms of supply.
5:59: We still have a shortage.
6:01: We still have, we’re still not building enough to accommodate the number of people that are relocating into Southeast Queensland, and we still have the huge infrastructure pipeline, underway, which is going to strengthen the local economy and continue to provide job opportunities for those that live in and around Southeast Queensland.
6:21: So.
6:22: There’s a lot of short-term uncertainty, but if we look at the long-term opportunity, it’s still actually there.
6:29: And, how do you make money in investing in property?
6:31: Usually long-term and look, I think opens, we’ve seen a little bit of a mixed batch.
6:38: we’ve seen some opens really strong numbers, just literally last week, I think it was a week, so a couple of weeks ago, I it all sort of piles up now, midweek mid.
6:49: Week open home for a residential house, yeah, raining and there was 8 to 10 groups there.
6:55: You know, in midweek, in, in the middle of the day.
6:57: So we’re still seeing some really good numbers at selected properties.
7:01: Yeah, but I’m also going to say it’s not all rosy out there.
7:04: There are also some other open homes where there’s very few buyers turning up.
7:09: you’ve mentioned, you gave a random example of where, you know, one where there was 8 buyers.
7:13: There’s also, open homes.
7:16: Our team have actually attended where there’s been in excess of 30 buyers.
7:20: There’s other open homes where there’s been only 2 or 3 buyers.
7:23: So, understanding the local nuances of different property types and different suburbs, is really important in this type of market, because we really cannot track a median value at, you know, a, a city city-wide level.
7:37: For example, in Brisbane, we need to understand the nuances of what’s happening in different segments and in different locations across the city.
7:44: So auctions, auction clearance rates, they fell fairly sharp, across May, so averaging at 48.5%, down from 55.1% in April, and 56.3% a year ago.
7:58: So definitely falling there in the, in the auction side of things.
8:01: Yeah, it’s definitely reflecting that growing gap between where the vendors or the seller’s expectations sit and what buyers are perhaps prepared to pay unconditionally, so that gap.
8:12: Appears to be widening with that clearance rate falling.
8:17: it doesn’t mean that there’s not willing buyers in the market.
8:20: Sometimes it just means that that gap is widening.
8:23: we certainly expect days on market to start, to start to increase in this type of market, because buyers are more selective, they are taking more time, and they’ve got less urgency to act quickly, which is going to potentially see those days on market indicators.
8:41: In the coming months.
8:42: So, listings, so new listing volumes, they, they increased significantly, rising 35.4% over the past 12 months.
8:50: It brings a bit more choice, I guess, to buyers that way, but total listings, declined by 0.9% over the same period.
8:57: Yeah, so what this suggests is despite the fact that we’re seeing more newly listed properties available for sale, we’re seeing that, that the sales volumes continue to absorb all.
9:08: Stock, Whether it’s new or old, because that total listing volume really has not changed a lot.
9:15: We also need to reflect on the fact that in Brisbane, the long-term listing average is well above what we’re seeing listing volumes sitting at today.
9:27: We’re still around 30% below our long-term average, so despite the fact that we’ve seen some short-term increases in the number of listings, especially in the last 2 to Three months we are still at very low volumes compared to where we have sat historically across Brisbane.
9:43: And and it’s definitely as we’ve touched on before, it it’s definitely different properties.
9:47: Yeah.
9:48: So that you know your high regarded properties that they’re tending still to transact, whereas your your properties that aren’t as desirable probably sit there a little bit longer, main roads, flood affected things like that, so it’s not every property across the board, it does sort of vary a little bit there.
10:05: the importance of, local knowledge, right?
10:07: Yeah.
10:08: Median, median days on market currently stand at about 18 days, which is slightly faster, 1 day faster than the previous month as well.
10:16: And it is still a lot faster than other capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne.
10:20: So, you know, despite the fact that we’ve seen a definite shift in May off the back of all of the, headwinds that we’ve mentioned, we’re still moving relatively quickly.
10:30: Comparatively when we look at other capital city markets around Australia.
10:34: Let’s get into dwelling values.
10:36: Yep, let’s jump into the dwelling values, so we’ll go, we’ll break it down as we normally do, but dwelling values, we’ve seen an increase there, 0.9% in the month of May, according to totality data.
10:50: Yeah, so if we compare that performance here in Brisbane against some other capital city markets for the month, Sydney’s down by 0.9%, and Melbourne’s down by 0.8%. We also saw Canberra retracting by 0.2%. All other capital city markets were in, positive price growth territory.
11:09: So despite the national news headline, which shows that the combined capitals actually declined by 0.1% across the month of May, we’re seeing that real divergence.
11:22: In the performance across different capital city markets.
11:25: Yeah, so Adelaide up, Perth up, Hobart up, Darwin up, and obviously Brisbane as we, as we mentioned as well.
11:31: So, when you look at that across the board, it’s literally, 3 markets that did drop, and the rest have actually performed still fairly, fairly strong.
11:39: And it’s a similar trend to what we’ve actually been observing over the last quarter in that in the larger capital city markets of Sydney and Melbourne.
11:47: And we’ve seen quarterly price falls, in terms of the median dwelling values.
11:54: Sydney down 2.1%, Melbourne down 2.3%. Whereas Brisbane’s actually up 3.4% across the same period.
12:02: So that’s quite a difference in the median value performance.
12:07: And I think it’s one of the reasons why it’s so critical for anyone following national news headlines to be.
12:14: Really obsessed about what market are they talking about, because Sydney and Melbourne make up a really large portion of the Australian property market, and so typically, they are the news headlines that we all receive, and it might not be applicable to the local market that you might be buying into, so it’s really important to get more granular market details.
12:33: And we did see Prop Track also record an increase, for the month for Brisbane as well.
12:40: different segments of the market, and this, this is still consistent with what we’ve probably seen for quite a while now, with the different segments of markets and how they’re performing.
12:49: Yeah, so the more affordable properties, the lowest 25% of, properties that have transacted in the last quarter, they shifted 6.1%, so it is outperforming the middle and the top end of the market.
13:02: the middle segment of the market.
13:04: Moved 5.2% here in Brisbane, and the top end, 3.5% in the last quarter.
13:11: Now, again, I, I’m going to compare that back to the big capitals, because this is where most of the national news headlines come from.
13:18: In Sydney, the top end of the market, in the same period of time, has declined 2.7%. In Melbourne, the top end has declined 2.9%. So, the affordable end of the market in both of those capital cities is just holding on, with 1.5% growth in the more affordable end of the market in Sydney and 0.5% growth in the more affordable end of the market in Melbourne.
13:44: Other capital cities doing very well in the affordable markets include Perth, Darwin, and Adelaide.
13:51: Very similar trend to Brisbane, the ones that are doing well as well, that’s noticeable as well in, in that, in that graph that we’re looking at.
13:59: houses, Brisbane house values rose 0.8% in May.
14:05: Median price now at $1,232,690.
14:10: That follows a 1.2% monthly gain across April and continues to sustain that positive growth, moving forward as well.
14:18: So.
14:18: So, the, the theme here is that price growth is moderating.
14:22: So, we’re still experiencing price increases, but that rate of growth, or the magnitude of growth is slowing down.
14:29: And that’s to be expected, given all of the headwinds.
14:32: and it’s likely we’ll continue to see the pace of growth slow down, in the next couple of months, as Some of those buyers are sitting on the sidelines, but in Brisbane, annual growth in the house market sitting at 18.6%. That’s a significant difference compared to annual house price growth in Melbourne, which is 0.7%, and annual house price growth in Sydney sitting at 2.2%., as I mentioned earlier, and the same trend, Proprac seeing the same sort of trend, which is obviously good to see all those data sources sort of, Comparing the same things, if we jump into the unit values, not surprising, and this is, as I said so many times, feels like a broken record, that the, the units seem to still be outperforming houses, in Brisbane, so we’ve seen an increase there of 1.3% for the month, and median house, unit values I should say, $884,881.
15:30: Yeah, this is where the opportunities.
15:31: Sits for those first home buyers, especially here in Brisbane, if you are relying on the 5%, 1st home buyer deposit guarantee scheme, you are having to buy only up to a purchase price of $1 million.
15:46: So, typically, in Brisbane, largely, you’re looking at the unit market, where the median value is $884,000.
15:54: Annually, though, in the last 12 months, this month.
15:56: The Market has shifted 21.8%. That’s huge.
16:01: and quarterly growths still sitting at 4.1% in this segment of the market.
16:05: So the opportunity is now, for those first home buyers, while the investors are on the sidelines, to buy before the investors have time to restructure, and also before all of the budget changes are confirmed and passed through parliament.
16:20: Because at that time, Once investors know and have certainty over perhaps how they’re meant to structure their investments moving forward, they may trickle back into that established market.
16:30: So, if there’s any opportunity to buy well now for those first home buyers in the sub $1 million dollar market, jump in now.
16:37: Yeah, definitely.
16:38: I, it’s, it’s interesting that one, we, we’ve watched and we’ve talked about the unit market for so long.
16:44: I mean, April 1.4%., May, as we just reported on 1.3%, so we’re still seeing that consistency there in that unit market, and it just goes to show that Brisbane is very, very different to a lot of other markets, especially our unit market sort of things.
17:00: Yeah, so quarterly growth in Brisbane’s still positive in that unit sector, whereas in Melbourne, Sydney, quarterly growth is negative, and when we look at the annual growth in Sydney in units, just 2.5.
17:12: 4%.
17:13: Melbourne, no change at all in median unit values across the last 12 months.
17:18: And, as I mentioned before, Brisbane’s sitting at 21.8%, which is a huge, huge, huge difference compared to the major capital cities around the country.
17:29: The, the rental market, no change there, very extremely, extremely tight.
17:33: Vacancy rates in Greater Brisbane held steady at 0.8% in April.
17:38: Yeah, nationally the vacancy rate, dipped to 1.5% in May, so you can see just how tight the Brisbane market is compared to the national average.
17:50: obviously, the record lows that we.
17:54: We had 4 national vacancy rates came through around 2022 and 2023, when overseas migration drove a sharp tightening of rental stock.
18:03: So we’re back at that level now, and this is at a time where potentially investors may move out of the market.
18:09: We may see a reduction over time in established properties becoming available for rent, especially if property investors are no longer buying them.
18:19: And so, it is likely that we’re, we’re going to see, supply shrink, which is going to potentially put upward pressure on rents.
18:28: And already in Brisbane, house rents annually have increased by 6.7%, up to the end of May.
18:36: That’s a further acceleration compared to the data up to the end of April, where we had a 6.5% annual increase.
18:44: And in the, unit market, we’ve seen annual, unit rents increase by 6.2%. So, both figures remain well above the level of inflation, and we need to be really mindful about how policy change, such as all of the, the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, as well as tax, sorry, trust structure changes, if that does impact, Investors, if it does result in fewer investors buying in established markets, we will see that supply gradually diminish, which means those people that can, can never afford to buy, perhaps don’t have the capacity to buy, but still want to live in these locations are likely to get pushed out either by price, or by just a lack of available stock.
19:30: Yeah, I, I think that’s an area that, is definitely worth watching really close, It it’s a bit of a, it’s a bit of a frightening one I think or in a way is that rental market because with the pressure on, as you said, the scarcity and the less property less properties coming to the market to rent, naturally that will probably just push prices up for the rental side of things, you might find that people might start to, pool in and, and start to share house a little bit more.
19:57: We’ve got more people sharing where they’re living, because the rents will continue to increase that way.
20:01: If, if there’s scarcity there, you’ll find that the rents will probably increase.
20:04: What’s interesting is that the Brisbane City Council, off the back of the budget announcements, actually also, canceled their proposal to push ahead with changes to short-term accommodation providers such as Airbnb.
20:19: So, You may recall on a previous podcast episode, we talked about, some of those changes that were likely to come into effect, here in Brisbane, whereby those that operated Airbnbs or provided short-term accommodation in low-density residential areas, would have been required to hold a permit, and they would’ve been unlikely to be supported, unless the area was supported through, short-term accommodation.
20:47: zoning.
20:47: So, because the budget changes, came through, Brisbane City Council have lifted that, that proposed change, which means we might also start to see people shift to providing more short-term accommodation options to improve their yields, especially if they are established investors, or investors buying in the established market, given that there’s, no longer the Opportunity for them to offset those holding costs.
21:14: They’ll be looking for, ways to improve their income, as property investors.
21:20: So that, that again, an unintended, change because of policy shift, it does change human behavior.
21:26: Yeah, not a lot to run out there as well.
21:28: gross yields for investors remained at 3.1% for houses and 3.9% for units, so unchanged, prior to the last month as well.
21:39: So, yeah, definitely Brisbane’s at an inflection point.
21:42: I think that’s the best way to describe it.
21:44: We’re going to be watching closely in the next few weeks to see what’s changing on the ground.
21:50: at the moment, it’s confidence as a, as a main driver.
21:53: We’re certainly not seeing, you know, good properties sell for a discount.
21:58: We’re not seeing that, that panic in the market whatsoever.
22:02: in fact, what we’ll likely, we’re more likely to, See a standoff between buyers and sellers, because sellers are not going to sell for a discount just because there’s uncertainty in the market.
22:13: If there’s obviously motivation to sell, they might be prepared to meet the market.
22:17: But generally speaking, in times like this, sales volumes actually typically fall, and days on market, expand or, or increase.
22:26: So, we’ll be watching those metrics closely, but there’s no better time than now to be out and about to understand what’s happening at a local level.
22:33: These are the times that we’ve talked about so much on the podcast, about, you know, when economic conditions change, when there’s uncertainty in the market.
22:41: There’s some segments of the market, some suburbs will perform a lot better than others.
22:46: any suburbs that have been largely investment-led in previous years, they’re going to potentially feel more pinch than those owner-occupier led suburbs.
22:55: So, there will be some interesting times ahead across Brisbane.
22:59: And understanding the nuances of local market conditions is going to become so much more important than tracking median value changes as we move forward in the months ahead.
23:07: Yeah, I think, I think coming up to the end of the financial year, obviously with the political side of things, with the, with the budget and things like that pushing ahead, it will be an interesting part to watch and see what people do.
23:18: Whether people say, look, I’m going to wait, I’m going to sit, I think there’s, there’s definitely still, as you said, there’s opportunity there.
23:26: and, and if you put on top of that we’ve still got infrastructure happening here in Brisbane.
23:30: OK, so they’ve just closed Victor Victoria Park, construction literally started, yesterday, at the time of the time of recording, so we, we’ve seen Victoria Park where the Olympic Stadium will happen.
23:42: there are infrastructure programs, that are underway, so I think that will still add and and push long pressure on the, on the market long-term wise as well.
23:52: Yeah, we’ve got strong population inflows, we’ve got that Olympic Games infrastructure, we’ve got huge, projects underway, but we’ve also got a great lifestyle.
24:03: We’ve got low.
24:04: Supply, we’re not building enough homes, all of these things point towards continued medium to long-term upside for Brisbane.
24:12: Of course, there’s some short-term, hesitation, especially from buyers, because of some of those really scary headlines that we’re seeing out there in the market, because we’re seeing and hearing people, sitting on the sidelines.
24:27: As, the budget uncertainty unfolds, really, people are looking for the certainty what will be legislated.
24:34: Once we have that certainty, we’ll find a new, level, a new medium to, to be able to make decisions moving forward.
24:41: So, as I’ve pointed out, if you are in the affordable segment of the market right now, and you’re a first-time buyer, now is the opportunity to jump.
24:49: This is the, this is what the Federal government wanted for you.
24:52: Whilst the investors are not in that segment of the market, we encourage you to, you know, look at the opportunities, and if you need assistance to, so that you don’t overpay, please reach out to a professional team like us here at Streamline Property Buyers.
25:05: We’re here to help.
25:06: I like to add the, the lifestyle part to Brisbane, when it’s, when it’s winter here in Brisbane and, and we start complaining, And this is how good we get it up here in beautiful, in beautiful Queensland.
25:17: We start complaining if the mornings get below 10 and the days get below 20, we think it’s freezing.
25:23: that’s our winter and that’s how good it is up here, in Queensland as well.
25:28: look, I, I think that’s a bit of a wrap there, as you said, there’s opportunity there, I think for people, especially as as Melinda’s mentioned a few times, your first home buyers, those savvy sort of investors, the unit market, keep an eye on that.
25:41: and, and look, I think there’s, there’s still upward pressure that’s going to happen on Brisbane long-term wise as well.
25:46: Yeah, and I, I just, err on the side of caution.
25:49: Don’t make any knee-jerk reactions in relation to the uncertainty that exists in the market at the moment.
25:55: We’re definitely hearing from selling agents that a lot of sellers are just sitting and they’re not actually.
26:00: Deciding to move forward with their sales campaign either.
26:02: Everybody wants certainty.
26:04: At the moment, we don’t have that until all of the, changes proposed in the federal budget are actually legislated.
26:11: So, at this point in time, we hold tight, and, we look forward to gaining that certainty in the near future.
26:17: Yeah, I think, Also, as, as you said, have caution, just don’t jump in.
26:22: I know that, off the back of the budget and things like that, they’re, they’re encouraging obviously new builds, for people, I would really get some advice on that if I was you.
26:32: I’m not gonna say what to do there, but, you know what I’m probably thinking without me saying it too much, but definitely.
26:39: Be cautious on that side of things, long-term investing, established properties, scarcity, all those things come into play.
26:46: Location is a key when you’re looking to invest into property as well.
26:50: Yes, it always comes back to asset quality, it comes back to the location, fundamentals, and, and an honest assessment, also in terms of cost versus value.
27:01: These are the things that are key drivers for property markets at any time in the cycle, so do not, Make knee-jerk reactions off short-term policy change, because ultimately, it’s the fundamentals that determine long-term property outcomes.
27:16: So, that’s it for today.
27:18: Excellent.
27:18: Thanks very much everyone for listening.
27:20: it’s a market update for May 2026.
27:23: As usual, I’ll throw it over to Melinda, she can wrap things up from here.
27:27: It’s been great talking, hope everyone got a lot of information out of that, and we will talk again soon.
27:32: Thanks very much, bye for now.
27:33: Thank you once again for joining us on today’s episode of the.
27:35: Brisbane Property Podcast.
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27:59: Until next time, we hope you have a good couple of weeks.
28:02: We’ll speak to you again soon.
28:03: Bye for now.