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EP 287 Why Brisbane’s Sub-$1M Market Just Exploded

Nov 26, 2025

What’s really driving the frenzy under $1 million in Brisbane’s property market?

In this episode of the Brisbane Property Podcast, Melinda and Scott Jennison explore the dramatic surge in buyer activity for properties priced under $1 million. From the sudden rush triggered by the First Home Buyer Guarantee scheme changes to shifting lifestyle preferences and affordability constraints, this episode breaks down the real reasons behind the explosion in this price segment.

Tune in to learn:

  • Why the under $1M market is outperforming other segments
  • How government stimulus has reshaped buyer behaviour
  • What types of properties are attracting the most interest
  • The risks buyers face when trying to move quickly in a competitive environment
  • Why expert support matters more than ever in this price band

Whether you’re an investor or a first home buyer, this episode will give you clarity on how to navigate Brisbane’s most in-demand market.

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If you liked this episode, please don’t forget to subscribe, tune in, and share this podcast with others you know will benefit from the information we share!

 

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Transcript

0:02: Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of the Brisbane Property podcast with Scott and Melinda Jennison, and today we’re going to talk about the the first home buyer surge, so, What’s sort of driving the Brisbane $11 million property market?
0:16: Well, we know what that is.
0:17: Yes, welcome back, everybody.
0:19: I hope you haven’t missed us.
0:20: I know it has been two weeks since we last, were speaking with you, but, today’s episode really is going to unpack more about the impact that the first home buyer grants have had on the Brisbane property market.
0:33: And in fact, as a team, we’ve got some specific examples that we’re going to share with you.
0:39: Property addresses where We’ve seen huge jumps, huge jumps in prices that buyers are prepared to pay in the space of, you know, 2 or 3 months, and we can see and demonstrate some areas and properties that have, have jumped in excess of $100,000.
0:56: And so that’s what makes this episode so important, because people need to understand this is happening in Brisbane right now, and we are, we’ve talked about this through many previous episodes, especially since the first home buyer.
1:09: , grants were but when the date was brought forward and we’ve seen this surge in buyer activity, now we have some evidence, and we’re gonna share that with you because if anyone thinks that this has not had an impact in the on the market, we’re going to provide evidence to the contrary today.
1:27: Yeah, I know we’ve talked about this as well that we called it a bit of a frenzy, so.
1:33: , when it was, it was brought forward and it was announced to come forward, to the first of October, in that lead up to that, from when the announcement happened to, obviously to 1st October, we did see a bit of a frenzy where people were wanting to get in very fast before it actually happened.
1:50: it’s continued, and we’ve seen, that frenzy basically continue.
1:55: That, that sub $1.1 million price point is.
2:00: I’ve I don’t think we’ve ever seen it so competitive like that in, in probably any market, to be honest.
2:05: Well, maybe in the, the post COVID boom, we saw a lot of competition, but prices were much, much lower back then.
2:11: So, and now, obviously, we’ve had this huge shift in property values over the last 5 years, in excess of 80 to 85% in some areas, and yet we’ve still got this heightened demand.
2:23: If I may just explain for those that are unfamiliar what this first home buyer guarantee scheme is.
2:30: This scheme allows eligible buyers to purchase a home with as little as 5% deposit, and they do not have to pay lenders’ mortgage insurance.
2:42: For context, traditionally, a property buyer needs to save a 20% deposit to avoid paying lenders’ mortgage insurance.
2:53: And this is an insurance.
2:54: , that is in addition to the loan.
2:57: So, when you’re working with a much lower deposit, the additional cost of lender lender’s mortgage insurance sometimes makes it prohibitive for first home buyers to get into the market.
3:09: Now, that’s obviously a massive saving.
3:11: It’s a saving in time because first home buyers no longer have to wait until they’ve got a 20% deposit, but it’s also opened the gates for a flood of new demand, and it’s brought that demand forward.
3:25: Keep in mind, this was always intended to come into effect in 2026, but the federal government brought it forward, and made the announcement early in September that they were going to bring that forward to the 1st of October.
3:38: And because of that, we’ve seen this flurry of activity happen throughout Brisbane.
3:42: , and we keep talking about the sub $1 million price point because this is the threshold after which the first home buyer guarantee scheme cuts out for first home buyers here in Brisbane.
3:54: The other big thing about the scheme is that there are no income caps, and what that means is that any first time buyer can qualify, even if they’re high income earners.
4:05: So this is why we’ve potentially seen an influx of new inquiry into this space and new buyer activity into this space.
4:13: And, yeah, it’s certainly crazy out there.
4:15: Especially, and I know that last month, if we go back.
4:18: To, when we did our update, October was about just under 1.1 median price, I think it was for, for a house of about 100 odd thereabouts, and obviously units were in the 770ish, just under 780 I think it was.
4:35: so when you look at those numbers, and it’s not a surprise that the unit market has continued to outpace the, the housing market, so.
4:42: The unit space in that affordable $11 million price point in your Brisbane inner and middle ring suburbs, they’re the areas that have really, really felt the effect of it as well.
4:53: Absolutely.
4:54: let’s cut to the chase.
4:55: I know our listeners would love to hear some of these examples that we’ve seen on the ground, and, we’ve got a number of them that we’d like to, to share with you.
5:04: So, we’re not going to give specific property addresses.
5:08: But we are going to give street names and suburbs of some properties that we’ve seen transact recently, just to give examples of what we’re seeing and, and why this is alarming and, and why we’re, we’re helping people understand just how much the market has shifted in this space.
5:24: Sure, so I’ll jump into the first one.
5:26: Some we’ve purchased, some we haven’t.
5:27: We obviously follow the market and we, we track everything.
5:29: So Wakefield Street in Alderley, which is just on the northern suburbs of, of Brisbane.
5:34: Back in March 2024, we purchased a unit in the complex for a client for $653,000.
5:43: Fast forward to August 2025 and another unit sold for $747,000.
5:51: And now just a month, so that’s, we’d gone from 653 to 747, and just just now in October, this year, we saw a similar unit go under contract in the high 800,000s.
6:06: That’s a massive shift.
6:08: So between August 2025, a contract or a property sold for 747,000, and by October, A similar property in the same complex, and this is a unit complex in Wakefield Street, Alderley.
6:24: Was under contract in the high 800,000s.
6:28: That’s more than $150,000 of growth in, in just over a year and a half.
6:33: It’s astronomical in this segment of the market, and it’s concrete evidence of what is actually happening, and it’s concrete evidence of what has happened just in the last couple of months here in Brisbane, and just how far some of the buyers in this segment of the market are willing to stretch.
6:50: Now, for Context.
6:52: This was a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, one car unit complex in a small complex.
6:58: I think there’s, maybe 9 in the complex.
7:02: So it just gives you an understanding of what the product type is.
7:06: So the next one we’ve got here, is in Innogra, so Pratt Street in Innogra.
7:11: So a unit sold in May for $715,000 but another unit in the complex.
7:20: Went went up in October, it drew 40 offers.
7:24: That’s correct, I said 40 offers.
7:26: OK, so we’re talking from May $715,000.
7:30: October, another unit goes up for sale.
7:33: 40 offers go in this and it goes under contract for the mid 800s.
7:37: Now, this particular property is a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, one car townhouse.
7:45: So it is two story, but it is just a 2 bedroom, one bathroom property, and it does have a very small land component as well.
7:55: Now, I mean, that level of competition tells us that buyer urgency is as high as And we’re seeing these concrete examples in the market right now.
8:05: So that’s, and, and it’s, it’s the demand side of it.
8:08: You know, when, when you look at a property that has 40 offers on it, and this is not, this is not the first one, I know we’ve talked about this in the past on some podcasts with 30, 40, 50 offers on properties, so this is, this is just showing people what this is actually, I think, I think what this scheme’s actually done is, is fueled the fire a little bit more, and it’s actually made people desperate to get into the market to say, I really need to get in.
8:31: I’ve got $1 million.
8:33: I want to get in the market, I can borrow money.
8:34: I’ve got, it’s a fantastic opportunity for me to get into the market, and they’re trying to make the most of it as well, so.
8:40: , the next one we’ve got is Haig Street in Gordon Park, another stand out here.
8:46: so units sold in July for $690,000 and within just a few months, comparable property went under contract for $770,000.
8:57: So again, $690,000 and then a few months later, $770,000.
9:04: Yeah, and this is just in the space of, you know, 2 or 3 months.
9:07: These are not big time frames that we’re talking about.
9:11: Now, for context, once again, this is a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, one car unit.
9:18: And we have seen similar units just 4 or 5 years ago sell less than $500,000.
9:26: So, The huge escalation in prices in the last 5 years has been incredible, especially in the last 2 or 3 years.
9:34: But what’s actually happened in the last 3 or 4 months is this incredible jump, especially since this first home buyer guarantee scheme came into place, and where we’ve got evidence of what something may have sold for before the scheme came into effect.
9:49: And what it, a comparable property in the same complex sells for subsequent to the scheme coming into effect, tells the story of this huge shift that we’re seeing in the market, that, that possibly and likely is attributable to the, the stimulatory effect that the first home buyer guarantee scheme has had on the market.
10:09: So the next one we’ve got, is in Marua.
10:11: , so it is, is it Choya Street?
10:14: I think I’ve got that right, haven’t I?
10:16: Choya Street.
10:17: so only a few months ago, two bedroom, one bathroom units were selling in the low to mid 600s.
10:24: OK, one just sold for $725,000 with 13 offers on it.
10:30: $25,500 actually.
10:33: $25,500.
10:35: OK.
10:35: 13 offers, and 5 of those were over 700,000 dollars.
10:40: Now, this is in Marua, 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, one car, and quite a traditional old format, type of unit internally was very, you know, well presented, but we’re talking, a red brick, you know, complex from They’re built probably in their 60s or the 70s.
11:02: We’re not talking anything modern.
11:04: And again, these were selling, you know, with, with a 4 in front, not so long ago, and all of a sudden, due to this huge, shift in demand into this affordable segment of the market, we’ve seen these prices escalate so dramatically.
11:19: So you, as I said on that one there, you know, you’ve gone from mid-600s to Mid-sevens, over $100,000 there in, in such a short space of time, but.
11:29: The the again, the bit I want to just remind people that yes, there was, there was 13 offers on it.
11:35: OK, and 5 of them were up in the 700s.
11:38: So again, it’s that demand and that push that that is really fueling that that demand, that the prices from that demand side of it as well.
11:46: And you may recall from, the last episode, a couple of weeks ago, where we provided our market update that we mentioned.
11:53: The listings for units are at an all-time low, well below the 10 year average and well below the 5-year average for Brisbane.
12:02: So there’s such a shortage of supply of units to the market or the supply of units for sale.
12:08: And because we’ve seen this demand shift into this segment of the market, we’ve got this complete imbalance, and this is why we’re seeing such high levels of competition.
12:17: And the interesting thing is, and we’ve spoken in-house as a team about the, the valuation risk for some of the prices that are being achieved.
12:26: But the reality is when there’s so many competing buyers for a single property, generally, the gap between the leader and that’s the, the leading offer and, and those that are behind is not as high as, as one could expect, especially with the prices being achieved.
12:41: And this is why we’re seeing valuations supported.
12:44: , by valuers.
12:46: so we’ve, we’ve certainly not heard of any valuations falling over at this point in time, but, it is an interesting time in the Brisbane market when we’re seeing such strong results being achieved in such a short time frame.
12:59: And I guess the question to ask is how much longer can this rate of acceleration in prices last for this segment of the market?
13:07: And I, I just, I think something for the listeners, obviously, we’re not We’re not trying to talk up prices, here, here on the podcast at all.
13:13: We just, we’re just giving the actual facts.
13:15: We’re just giving the reality of this is what we’ve seen, and this is what we’ve even purchased, and now this is what we’re looking at.
13:21: So what we’ve paid previously and now what buyers need to pay something similar.
13:26: And under just understanding the actual market.
13:28: So this is reality, this is what it’s actually selling for, so you have to understand where the market sits if you want to be actually in the market.
13:35: , one thing I will say, you know, based on the fact that we have purchased, for, for clients in the past, in, in a couple of these complexes, what a, what a fantastic result for our clients that have this equity position now when someone in the same complex has paid, you know, potentially, you know, $100 or $150,000 more than what our, our clients paid just, you know, a few months ago.
13:59: I mean, this is the reality.
14:00: Every new property that transacts becomes the new baseline of value.
14:05: And, and now we are in a situation where we’re not just looking at a bank valuation, we’re looking at real sales evidence of an equity position that another recent buyer may actually have.
14:16: So, this is the market that we are in, and, and it’s important for buyers to understand that.
14:22: Yeah, well done to our buyers.
14:24: so breaking it down obviously, obviously what the scheme has done is it’s, it’s unlocked some buyer confidence, especially for those that have been previously priced out.
14:33: So it’s given them confidence to get into the market, that is obviously added more pressure on the market as well.
14:40: And it’s just that shift that the psychology sort of shift of things that people, you know, will I wait, will I act now, what will I do?
14:48: I think people have now gone, well, you know what, prices are rising.
14:52: I, I don’t want to miss out on, I wanna make the most of it, and I want to get into that market.
14:55: There’s a couple of things we’ve seen really push the pressure on that as well.
14:59: Yeah, and I don’t think it is all just first home buyers.
15:01: I think It’s really important to highlight the fact that first home buyers are a big segment of this market, but first home buyers are competing with other buyers in this segment of the market.
15:11: We’ve seen a huge influx of property investors move into this segment of the market, purely based on affordability, because, a house is almost unachievable in a price point, you know, around 7000 or $750,000 in many parts of Brisbane, unless it’s an impacted location for, for some.
15:30: , reason.
15:32: So we’re seeing this shift in, in what people are prepared to buy, based on affordability metrics as well.
15:42: Especially, sorry, on top of that, especially when you’ve got, vacancy rates so low.
15:48: I think, I think we’re looking around 1.1%, by memory for vacancy rates in the unit space.
15:53: So when you’ve got a developer that can come in and buy a, sorry, an investor.
15:58: I should say, an investor come in, get into that market, pretty much guaranteed you’re gonna get a tenant, and the market is continuing to grow the way it is.
16:07: it’s a smart play.
16:07: If, if that’s what your price point is as well.
16:10: And knowing also that your gross yields on units are typically higher.
16:14: So despite the fact that typically you will also have some body corporate fees to pay, sometimes those net yields are actually just As attractive as they may be in the house market, and it’s important for investors to run comparable numbers, because we’re seeing some complexes with very low body corporate fees, others have very high body corporate fees.
16:32: So it a blanket approach should never apply to, to all properties when it comes to assessing what makes a good investment and what’s not.
16:40: So what does it mean now for buyers, if we, if we’re looking at, we’ve got a buyer in the $1 million price point.
16:48: I keep stumbling on that $1 million part at the moment.
16:49: I don’t know why.
16:51: the sub $1 million dollar market, what do we, what do they need to know and what do they need to be aware of?
16:56: Look, without a doubt right now, speed and confidence are the two most important things for buyers in the market.
17:04: You absolutely need to be ready to act fast, and you need to be ready to act with confidence.
17:09: So what does that mean?
17:11: You must have finance in place.
17:13: If you If you are a buyer that’s conditional to the sale of another property, right now in this segment of the market, you’re simply not going to be considered.
17:21: When there are multiple offers on every opportunity that becomes available, if you are subject to sale, that gives the seller absolutely no certainty whatsoever of the sale going through, and for a seller to even consider that, your offer would need to be considerably higher than most other offers that you would be competing against.
17:42: So, Think about, talking to your broker if you are in that position where you’re subject to sale.
17:48: Now, of course, if you’re a first time buyer, that’s not going to apply to you because you wouldn’t already own a property, but for other people that, that can apply.
17:55: I think your conditions as well, and I’m not going to talk people in or out of certain conditions, I’m just going to make people aware, and this is something we do at Streamline Property Buyers with our clients.
18:06: We, we help them understand the risk, make sure we try and get them as competitive as possible when we’re looking to make an offer.
18:13: So there’s, there’s conditions there that you can put on your properties, on your offer, I should say, for the property.
18:18: so just understanding what those conditions are, what they mean, and what risk it’s going to put you at as well.
18:24: OK, so you need to be protected that you’re not putting yourself in a position that you’re not comfortable with as well.
18:30: Also diligence.
18:31: I was just about to say you’re talking about risk, we cannot underestimate the importance of due diligence when we’re, we’re talking about risk.
18:38: We’re seeing so many buyers take such big risks by just not knowing and not completing the due diligence and quite often not even understanding what due diligence needs to be completed or what should be completed.
18:51: I think many buyers now are working on the security blanket of the Form 2 disclosure statements that are being provided by the seller, hoping that that covers everything that they need to be aware of.
19:04: Now, unfortunately, with the sale of units, especially, and townhouses, anything under a body corporate scheme, what is disclosed to you in a Form 2 disclosure statement, and that, remember, is the statement that’s now required by law to be provided to every buyer before a contract is entered into.
19:21: The information that forms part of that disclosure requirement is not comprehensive enough to cover you for all risks if you’re buying under a body corporate scheme.
19:33: I’m just gonna repeat that.
19:34: The information supplied in a form to is not comprehensive enough to protect you from all risks as a buyer, if you’re buying under a body corporate scheme.
19:43: So what can you do to protect yourself if you’re not getting advice from a professional buyer’s agent who is representing you?
19:50: About the additional risk.
19:51: Talk to your solicitor before you sign anything.
19:54: It is so important that you understand any potential risk that you are exposed to if you’re not doing a full search of body corporate records.
20:02: And there’s been previous episodes that we have, covered in detail, what inspections should be incorporated into, an offer to ensure you are protected if you’re buying within a body corporate scheme.
20:14: So head back to have a look at some of those previous, episodes that we’ve created for you to Ensure that you have the protection in place that you need.
20:22: The last thing that you want is to buy into a scheme, buy into a complex, and then be hit with special levies for works that have been discoverable through a full check of body corporate records.
20:34: So, hopefully, that’s enough just to put alarm bells in place to make sure you’re doing thorough due diligence before you place offers.
20:42: Yeah, it’s, it’s all about avoiding making mistakes and costly mistakes as well.
20:46: Now, a lot of these properties that we do see at the moment.
20:49: , we’re seeing them listed, maybe on a Thursday or a Friday, and they’re sold on the Saturday or the Sunday.
20:54: So some people will go out and they, and do the inspection and go, oh, that’s great, I love it.
20:59: I think I’ll let me have a chat to my family over the barbecue and all of a sudden, when they ring the agent, it’s got a multi offer and it’s already sold, and they’ve, they’ve missed out on it.
21:09: So that’s the sort of thing obviously we can do as professionals, where we can turn over all that due diligence.
21:15: It’s all ready, we inspect the property, we’re in a position with more confidence.
21:19: To, to make a an actual informed decision with our, with our client and and make an offering as well.
21:26: On, I know we talked to Chris Burling from Business Depot a while ago about the, some of the seller disclosure type of details.
21:34: what we will do for our listeners is we’ll, we’ll contact Chris.
21:39: I know we talked about what it is and what’s coming and all that information, but I think it’d be great to get him on.
21:45: And talk about what we’ve what he’s seen, some of the mistakes, some of the things that are happening, so what’s impacted the market, yeah, and how it’s impacted the market.
21:54: So we’ll do that for for for the listeners, we’ll organize that, and get Chris on in a future episode just to actually bring us up to date, we know what was coming, we know what it is, but what are some mistakes, what are some issues, what are some teething things like that as well, just so you can understand as well.
22:10: I will say, there’s a lot of pressure in the market at the moment.
22:13: We are hearing ourselves from agent that pressure, a lot of emotional pressure.
22:17: So, we’ve talked about the speed of the market.
22:20: Properties listed one week open on a Saturday, offices are closing Sunday or Monday.
22:26: Buyers are emotional, especially if you’re buying a home.
22:28: It’s a big emotional decision, and, you know, there is a lot of pressure being applied to some buyers to make those decisions very quickly.
22:35: So having some support alongside you, whether it’s family, whether it’s professionals, buyers.
22:41: Agent team, I think that that just provides you with more confidence, but make sure the support you’re getting is informed support, not just someone that’s purchased property once, but someone that knows the market, understands the market, and can take some of the emotional, I guess, decision making away and make it more objective, because right now in the market, there’s unfortunately, not a lot of time for emotional decision making.
23:06: The decision making needs to be fast and typically it needs to be more objective and that’s where a professional can really assist in helping people make those informed decisions without too much emotional involvement.
23:18: I still say as well to our listeners, even though the market is moving.
23:22: I, I would say rapidly at the moment and has in this segment of the market.
23:27: It is moving rapidly.
23:28: Yeah, people don’t want to miss out on property, they do want to get into the market.
23:31: Don’t rush into things.
23:33: OK.
23:33: Make sure you do your homework, all due diligence, make sure you get everything lined up.
23:38: You want to avoid making.
23:40: Mistakes.
23:41: OK, that the biggest thing that I, I will say to people, yeah, look, there’s great opportunities to get into a market that is growing, but don’t rush into things, make sure you got in organized, make sure everything’s all those box of ticks, ticked, and you avoid making a very, very costly mistake as well.
23:58: I think the surge, basically this side of it, it’s no accident, it’s pretty clear what’s happened when you, when you bring policy into play with, With, sentiment and scarcity and things like that, it’s, it’s created some momentum in the industry as well.
24:10: Absolutely.
24:11: And I think also, last month, we talked about the fact that based on totality data, 94% of Brisbane suburbs still had unit markets with a median value below that $1 million price point.
24:25: So the majority of the market that, these price caps apply to are going to be suburbs where you can still buy a unit, whereas only, I can’t remember the exact number, I think it was only 44% of houses 43% of house markets in Brisbane actually still fall below that $1 million threshold.
24:46: So that’s why we’re seeing more demand in the unit and townhouse.
24:49: Space and certainly in that inner and middle ring segment of the market, huge demand shift, into these areas.
24:57: So, there’s still a lot of suburbs that are accessible for first time buyers that are shopping within a budget of $1 million but still, we don’t want to underestimate the fact that there’s risk in this market and make sure you are doing.
25:12: Thorough due diligence and not just throwing money at properties just for the sake of making offers because it is a frenzy out there.
25:20: You must slow down, protect your interests, get contracts reviewed, understand body corporate, details thoroughly before you actually transact, because you don’t want to buy something that’s going to be a financial drain long term, on you.
25:36: Excellent.
25:36: Well, I think that’s been a bit of an understanding obviously what’s happened, from this from the scheme that has been brought in, so.
25:43: Look, hopefully that’s helped you understand what’s happening, what is going on in the market here in Brissy.
25:49: I will let Melinda wrap it up as I normally do, and we will, I’ll, I’ll follow up with that episode and try and organize Chris at some stage if I can.
25:56: If I can tie him down.
25:57: I know he’s usually busy as well, but, I think that would be beneficial for our listeners to hear something like that as well.
26:02: So, we’ll do some more work on that and we’ll, until next time, thanks very much for listening.
26:07: I’ll let Melinda wrap things.
26:09: Up as I normally do, and bye for now.
26:11: Thank you once again for joining us on this week’s episode of the Brisbane Property Podcast.
26:16: We’ll be back in touch again in 2 weeks’ time on the 11th of December, but until then, we hope you have a good couple of weeks.
26:23: Look, I mention it every week.
26:24: If you do have the chance to leave us a review, we would love for you to do so.
26:28: Don’t forget to share this episode with friends and family also.
26:32: We’ll see you again in 2 weeks’ time.
26:33: Bye for now.

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