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EP 288 Brisbane Property Market Update November 2025

Dec 10, 2025

Brisbane’s property market continues to surge, with record-low listings, rapid buyer demand, and strong price growth across both houses and units. In this month’s Brisbane Property Podcast, Scott and Melinda break down the latest SQM, PropTrack, Domain, and CoreLogic/Cotality data explaining why Brisbane is outperforming Sydney and Melbourne and why growth is expected to continue into 2026.

We cover:

  • Brisbane’s 1.9% dwelling value rise in November
  • House prices passing $1.1M median
  • Unit prices approaching $800K median
  • Record-low rental vacancy rates tightening the market
  • Investor & first-home buyer competition in the sub-$1M segment
  • Forecasts from Domain and SQM’s Boom & Bust Report
  • Why supply shortages + population growth continue to push prices higher

 

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Transcript

0:18: Hi everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Brisbane Property podcast with Scott and Melinda Jannison, and it’s market update time.
0:25: Yes, welcome back once again to the Brisbane Property podcast, and what a month November has been, and we’re going to be covering all of the latest data today from totality, and also helping you understand what prop track data is saying as well.
0:40: But boy, we have seen some extraordinary growth once.
0:43: Again throughout the month of November and and Brisbane is again one of the top capital city markets and in fact it’s the small, the smaller capital city markets around Australia that are outperforming compared to the big capital cities of Melbourne and Sydney.
0:59: So interesting times indeed.
1:01: Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s not a surprise when, I think I mentioned last month when all the numbers will come out and, and our team will have a,, put their, their bets in on what they think it’s all going to sit, and, and it’s not a surprise that everyone in our team did expect it to be the numbers to be quite high.
1:20: from what we’re seeing out and about, and I do talk about this a lot, seeing multiple offers on properties, lots of people bidding at auctions, so.
1:29: The activity in the market is really strong, and it, it look, it just shows on the numbers as well when we, when we look at the numbers for the November.
1:35: And when, and when we look at the November details, remember these are settled sales, so these are the transactions that were actually happening back in October.
1:44: Now of course, let’s not forget the stimulus that the federal government brought into the market in that.
1:50: Sub $1 million dollar price point here in Brisbane, and that was in relation to the first home buyer guarantee scheme.
1:56: So I know we’ve talked about the fact that we saw activity increase in September, simply on the basis that this legislation was coming into effect.
2:07: The legislation started on the 1st of October, and so the November.
2:11: Data reflects settled sales for transactions that actually took place in October because here in Queensland a typical settlement period is 30 days.
2:20: So we are now seeing the true impact of some of the stimulatory effect on that sub $1 million price point.
2:28: I did touch on auction rates and clearance rates obviously.
2:32: So they lifted to just under 74% in November.
2:36: That was up from 72% in October and well above last year’s range around that mid 50%.
2:42: Yeah, median days on market, according to the data, remained unchanged month to month.
2:47: So at 21 days throughout October and November, although as we’ve pointed out on a number.
2:53: occasions, this is very property specific and we are seeing a lot of properties transact very quickly, even in as little as 7 days or less.
3:03: Properties that sometimes are listed on a Thursday or a Friday are in a multiple offer situation on a Saturday or even on a Monday.
3:10: So some properties are transacting much, much faster than that median value.
3:14: Then of course there’s going to be properties that will take a lot longer to sell, and usually right now in Brisbane, because we’ve got such a shortage of supply and, and strong demand in a lot of segments of the market, we usually find those properties that are taking longer to sell have not been priced accurately at the beginning, or they may have impacts which do inhibit buyer demand to some extent.
3:36: So buying the properties, and that’s, it’s an interesting one.
3:39: I mean our investors are really strong and also first time buyers.
3:42: Obviously with that scheme that you’ve you’ve talked about there, the first home buyers guarantee scheme.
3:47: So we’re still seeing that underpinning a large share of the market as well.
3:51: So in Queensland, investors account for around 38.3% of housing finance commitments, and first home buyers make up roughly 27%.
4:00: Yeah, that’s a large portion of the market that’s being made up from these two buyer segments.
4:07: Investment activity is particularly strong in Queensland.
4:10: It’s especially strong in South East Queensland, and we’re certainly seeing in Brisbane there is a lot of Investment activity.
4:16: So yes, these types of buyers are very active in the market, and typically investors and first home buyers are largely competing for the same stock.
4:25: So this is more than 50% of the market competing for the more affordable properties here in Brisbane, and that’s why we’ve seen such strong growth in the more affordable segment as well.
4:35: We’ll get into the segments as well later, and it won’t surprise me, but I definitely think the first home buyers scheme, it’s, it’s put a lot of pressure on that.
4:44: Sub $1 million dollar mark.
4:45: I know that our dwellings I think we’re just over the 11 mil mark now, which we’ll get to the obviously the values in a little bit later on, but it’s definitely put a lot of pressure in that sub $1 million dollar mark.
4:56: and I think that is where we’re seeing a lot of the, the uplift in the market as well, and that’ll show probably when we get into the segments of the market.
5:03: Yeah, I’m also going to say that, we are also seeing across the board really strong interest in that 1 to 1.5 $1.6 million dollar price point.
5:13: There is still a lot of, Competition in that space, and a lot of properties that are not selling by auction, but are selling by private treaty sale, are selling with multiple offers, and in some instances, they’re selling very quickly.
5:26: some buyers are dropping conditions, exposing themselves to a level of risk just to secure opportunities, when they are in a multiple offer situation.
5:36: So, there’s definitely a lot of competition in, in price points, all the way up to the mid ones here.
5:42: Brisbane, the buyer activity does thin out a little more at higher price points, and then it becomes much more property specific in terms of the depth of buyers, and some properties in that, that higher end of the market are taking longer to sell simply because there’s not as many buyers at that segment, in that segment of the market.
6:00: Just, just for our listeners as well, coming up, we will be doing some, some podcasts through, through the Christmas break, because I know everyone wants to be eating their, Christmas hams and and puddings, listening to our podcast, but we will be, doing some podcasts coming up, and there’s some reports that have come out, so the boom and bust report, Louis Christopher’s boom and bust report, so we’ll break a lot of those down in the coming up, in another episode as well, but yeah, there’s a lot of, a lot of information coming up about, It’s always people sort of say, oh, predictions and how how things are going to play out, but it is interesting when we see these, and, and they’re actually a very, very good report that they do.
6:41: Actually, if we look back at Louis Christopher’s SQM research boom or bust report from last year, the predicted growth rate for Brisbane in the base scenario pretty pretty much played out to be accurate.
6:54: For those that may not be aware of the predictions for 2026, Louis Christopher’s boom and The bust report this year has indicated that Brisbane’s still got a lot of growth throughout 2026 to come.
7:07: In a base case scenario, between 10 and 15% growth has been predicted.
7:13: Now the scenarios that he provides allow for changes in interest rate movements and other inflationary effects.
7:22: So the base case scenario assumes a certain set of circumstances, and then there’s three or two other scenarios.
7:29: , or three other scenarios that they, they provide other alternative predictions for depending on which way interest rates might move or which way inflation might move.
7:39: So if you’re not familiar already with Louis Christopher’s boom or bust report, you’re very welcome to find out more information by heading over to the SQM research website where those details will be available to you.
7:52: Yeah, it also throws in unemployment rates as well, so it’ll give different scenarios, as Melinda mentioned about.
7:59: Interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and it takes into account all those factors as well, and it’ll give you a bit of a range on where they, where they believe it’s going to sit as well.
8:08: Yeah, Domain have also put out some forecasts for 2026.
8:11: Domain also predict Brisbane property prices will rise over the next 12 months, and they have predicted growth in the house market of approximately 5%, and growth in the unit market of approximately 7%.
8:26: So they’ve actually narrowed down the growth in different.
8:28: Segments of the market as well.
8:31: So that’s Domain’s 2026 forecast report.
8:35: again, you can head over to the Domain website and find out more about this report and the details around those predictions, which have been stamped out for each capital city market around Australia.
8:46: Obviously, the RBA in November, it is Melbourne Cup Day, it was Melbourne Cup Day, and, and obviously cash, the, the rate remained unchanged at 3.6%. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens there coming up into the future and what sort of impact that will have as well if they do make any changes.
9:06: Yeah, look, I think it’s looking less likely that we’re going to see interest rate cuts throughout 2026 because inflation has been a lot stickier than what has originally or what was originally predicted.
9:18: So I think some surprising news out of some of the macro.
9:24: puzzle, I guess you could say, the broader environment is the consumer sentiment index.
9:30: Now that actually jumped 12.5% during November, and for the first time in almost four years, this indicator escalated above a score of 100, and that simply means that there’s more households right now in Australia that Optimistic rather than pessimistic about their financial outlook.
9:52: So that’s been a big shift.
9:54: It is the first time in 4 years that the consumer sentiment index has been above that 100 threshold.
10:01: So it tells us that people are feeling a little bit more confident about their household financial outlook.
10:09: Good way to lead up to Christmas as well, feeling confident like that.
10:12: So let’s jump into some dwellings in some values I should say.
10:16: So Brisbane dwelling values, again I’ll I’ll repeat it, Greater Brisbane, dwelling values here and we’ll break it down into, Segments, houses and units in a second.
10:26: So dwelling values rose 1.9% in November following a 1.8% rise in October.
10:33: So quarterly growth 4.9% at the end of October and 5.5% at the end of November.
10:41: It is interesting to see Brisbane performing strongly in terms of dwelling price changes.
10:49: Equally, Adelaide also.
10:51: Experienced similar growth at 1.9%, and Darwin, same value growth across the month.
10:57: But surging ahead right now is Perth with 2.4% change in dwelling prices.
11:04: So really strong prices there.
11:05: I think that we always prefer to break down our market into the house market and the unit market, so we’ll take a deeper dive into each segment of the market shortly.
11:13: And the segments of the market, and I did, I did touch on this a little while ago, and it’s not surprising when, when you look at the, It’s interesting when you look at this, this graph and and the top.
11:24: Capital cities.
11:25: So, you know, obviously Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin, which are the ones leading the way, and each segment of the market is almost exactly the same, the way that it steps down through the percentage sort of things.
11:37: Yeah, just to explain what Scott’s visually looking at here, we have the more affordable segment of the market, which is the lower 25% of property values, growing at the fastest quarterly growth rates.
11:50: So, the lowest 25th percentile.
11:53: Of the market have increased 5.4% over the three months to the end of October.
11:58: The middle segment of the market has increased, 5%.
12:02: That’s the middle 50% of property values.
12:04: And then the top end of the market, so the most expensive 25% of properties that have transacted, they’ve shifted 5, 4.5%. What I will say is that the gap is closing.
12:17: When we were looking at the percentile data just three months ago.
12:22: So looking at mid-year, analysis, it was definitely the more affordable end of the market that was growing at a much stronger rate, more than double the top end of the market.
12:32: But what we’re seeing now, and potentially, we’re seeing this with a couple of the, the easements in interest rates, we’re seeing that that top end of the market start to, to re-stimulate and more buyer activity, and that’s what’s pushing prices up yet again in that more expensive segment.
12:47: So, it’s becoming more equalized across all segments.
12:50: Of the market in Brisbane right now.
12:53: Yeah, and Proptrac obviously tells a similar story.
12:55: Brisbane dwelling values up 0.6% over the month of November.
13:00: So obviously it’s still showing an uptick in the market as well.
13:03: Yeah, I think there’s a lot of confusion sometimes for listeners that don’t understand what you will be seeing on news reports, will be the Prop Track data.
13:12: This is simply because Prop Track, as, as is my understanding, is owned by News Corp.
13:19: , and real estate.com.au.
13:22: So they’re all one company, so they have the rights for a lot of the, the media that does go out there.
13:27: That said, we talk a lot about totality data, formerly was CoreLogic, on this podcast.
13:34: and the reason for that is that the government, the RBA itself, and the, ABS do quote totality data over any other data source.
13:43: So that is the, the data source that we also prefer to rely upon, and, over the last 7 Years of producing monthly updates, not just in this podcast, but also on our streamlined Property Buyers blog, we have always quoted what has been the CoreLogic data, which is now the totality data, just to help people understand where the information is coming from.
14:05: So breaking it down, house values.
14:07: So obviously, as, as we mentioned, brilliant a house really strong for November in Brisbane.
14:12: Median house values rose 1.8% for the month, matching October’s monthly gain.
14:18: And are now 5.3% higher over the quarter and 12.2% higher than last year.
14:23: So that’s pushed it up from 1,087,183 to 1,111, 431.
14:34: So the median value right now in Brisbane has just surpassed $1.1 million for a house.
14:40: This is all of Greater Brisbane.
14:41: This is not just Brisbane City Council region, so.
14:44: You know, gone are the days where we could still buy within 10 kilometers of the CBD, for a budget of 80,000 or 900,000.
14:51: It’s simply very hard to find that type of opportunity now, unless there’s some sort of impact that is being on a main road or a flood or something like that.
14:59: So there has been strong price appreciation, and the house market has lagged behind the unit market for some time, but we’re starting to see a resurgence in that monthly price growth.
15:11: So we’re definitely seeing more buyers get back into this segment of the market, and that is in line with that segmentation that we discussed in terms of dwelling data in that that middle and top end in terms of quarterly value changes, the gap is closing very quickly on that lower end of the market.
15:29: I just wanted to throw a number on that just when we talk about that for people to understand on the median price on that monthly growth.
15:36: That was an increase of around $24,000 for the month.
15:40: It’s a lot of money, isn’t it?
15:41: And when you quantify that on a weekly basis, obviously, you know, we’re talking a lot of money.
15:47: And so if you’re wondering, you know, how negotiations are going, or whether you should stretch another, you know, $6000 that’s one week’s growth based on the current rate of growth in the house market and based on the median value that Brisbane has right now.
16:01: So it’s a tough market out there.
16:03: Units.
16:03: , and not surprising, it again, that broken record, we seem to be talking about units going up all the time, in Brisbane.
16:10: So look, they’ve, they’ve continued to climb 2.2% in November.
16:15: So again, they’re outpacing the housing market.
16:17: They followed up.
16:18: There was 1.9% gain in October, so it’s popped up again.
16:22: Quarterly growth now sits at 6.3%, up from the 5.3% the month earlier, and annual growth has lifted from 14 to 15.8%. Yeah, there’s no denying whatsoever that the unit market in Brisbane has been the quiet achiever in this growth cycle.
16:39: This is very unlike most other capital city markets, and in fact, National news headlines suggest that unit markets in the last 12 months, in the last quarter, etc.
16:49: have all underperformed the house market.
16:52: That’s not the case here in Brisbane, and that is why it’s so important to understand what is happening at a local level.
16:59: I would not be surprised if next month we’re reporting on the fact that unit median values have surpassed $800,000 here in Brisbane for the.
17:08: First time ever.
17:10: We’re currently sitting at $792,896 in terms of Brisbane’s median unit value.
17:19: I can recall only a few years ago talking about median values still having a 4 in front, so this is the significant growth that we have experienced in this segment of the market.
17:28: And of course, it’s not a surprise, affordability has driven a lot of buyers into this.
17:34: Segment of the market.
17:35: We’ve also had really tight rental conditions.
17:38: We’ve had limited new stock coming, becoming available.
17:41: We’re not building as many high density units as we did back in 2016 and 20, 2017, off the back of the change in the city plans.
17:50: So, you know, it also, those, those stimulus, or policy changes have brought more buyers into that sub $1 million dollar price range.
17:59: As well, which largely groups people into that attached dwelling segment or the unit market here in Brisbane.
18:06: So many reasons why we’re still continuing to see outperformance in that subsection of the market.
18:11: Yeah, I can’t see that changing for a little while either.
18:13: I think it’s, especially with that again with that first home buyers scheme, that does, that’s that price point.
18:18: It’s under a million dollars.
18:20: I think that’ll keep pressure on it.
18:21: Proprac obviously showed, unit prices up 0.9% in November.
18:25: So slightly ahead of houses, but also reinforcing that market is definitely performing very, very well.
18:32: And look, Brisbane is still one of the top capital city markets in terms of unit price growth on a monthly basis.
18:39: We did see Darwin surge ahead over the month of November with 2.6% growth compared to the 2.2% that we had here.
18:47: In Brisbane, but when we’re looking annually, Brisbane, yeah, still ahead at 15.8% annual growth in the unit market.
18:55: So that leads the nation in terms of capital city markets for growth.
18:58: You did touch on rental.
19:00: I heard you mention the rental market, how tight it is.
19:03: So yeah, look, it’s very, very, very tight.
19:06: City vacancy rates at 1% in October, up only marginally from 0.9% in September.
19:14: So it’s a very, very tight market.
19:16: House rents now sitting at 6%.
19:18: , higher than a year ago, up from 5.6% in October.
19:24: Units, also lifted 6.9% over the year compared to 6.5 a month earlier.
19:31: So what this means and what this data, really tells us is that rents are still increasing, and they’re still increasing at a faster rate than inflation.
19:41: So tenants are going to be finding it pretty tough.
19:44: It is putting more pressure on rents.
19:47: Now, a lot of this is.
19:49: Supply driven crunch.
19:50: We simply do not have, the, the volume of rental properties that we need to fulfill the demand that is in the market for those rental properties.
20:00: Now, because we’ve had a situation in Brisbane where house prices and unit prices have escalated at such a fast rate, even though we’ve seen rents in both segments of the market also increase, we’ve actually seen yields compressed, because the rate of growth in prices has.
20:18: Been faster than the rate of growth in rents.
20:22: So right now house rents are sitting at 3.3% growth across all of Greater Brisbane, and units are yielding at roughly 4.1%. So, you know, we’re definitely seeing those yields compress as values outstrip the rate of growth compared to rental price changes.
20:41: Still, still pretty strong yields really when you look at that for a property and for investor wise.
20:46: I mean that sort of market when you can get.
20:49: Good strong yields, rental, rent, the vacancy rates are so low, you’re pretty sure that you’re going to get a tenant if you, if you pick up a unit in Brisbane.
20:57: Look, yields in Brisbane units, are some of the lower yielding assets across all of the country when it comes to capital city markets, that is in the unit market, and that’s simply because we’ve had such extraordinary growth in that segment of the market.
21:12: In recent times.
21:13: Whereas in the house market right now in Brisbane, yields are still somewhat attractive, you know, sitting at 3.3% compared to, yields in Sydney, sitting at 2.2%, sorry, 2.6%, and in Melbourne, yields sitting at 3.1%. So, you can see that Brisbane still provides a, a more Attractive yield than other East Coast capitals, but of course, Adelaide’s yield’s sitting at 3.3% for houses.
21:41: Perth, a little more attractive at 3.8%. And one of the reasons people are attracted to other locations, for example, Hobart, and Darwin, is that the yields are higher.
21:51: Hobart is currently sitting at 4.2% gross for a house, and Darwin at 5.7% gross.
21:58: We did see, I, I, it was interesting when you talked about those segments and how the top end of the market is starting to close up on the, on that bottom section as well.
22:05: And we’ve seen some really good prices lately.
22:07: There was a house in strong prices we call them good strong prices, you know, Wilson, there was a house there picked up about 7.8 million, I think it was just recently.
22:17: so some really strong prices in, in that housing market.
22:21: , there was also one down on the river, for Brisbane 2 $25 million for a knockdown on the river.
22:32: so yes, definitely prime real estate, and that has set the new record for Brisbane in terms of house prices that have.
22:40: Been achieved, and that just happened within the month of November as well.
22:43: So we’re seeing that premium end of the market really, tick over.
22:47: There’s definitely a lot of buyers looking for premium high-end products.
22:51: obviously, they, they become very particular about what and where they will buy, but, yeah, very strong prices in that market.
22:57: And a little bit of a summary then.
22:59: , obviously with the, with the prices going up, the amount of people out and about, look, I, I’m probably leaning towards a similar thing to what those reports are saying.
23:09: I can’t see Brisbane slowing down.
23:10: I think it’s going to continue, the amount of people that are out and about.
23:13: , and obviously very low on listings as well.
23:16: Yeah.
23:17: And look, I think that I’d also like to say that the fact that we have such low vacancy rates, it further complicates our low stock environment.
23:26: A lot of people that want to sell, typically will transition from selling their home into the rental market while they look to purchase their new property.
23:34: But right now, because vacancy rates are so low, they’re finding it very difficult.
23:39: To do that.
23:40: So that’s also causing a backlog of people wanting to sell and further compressing the listing volumes here in Brisbane.
23:50: So the feedback loop, it’s part of the reason why stock levels remain so tight and there’s not enough properties available to buy, simply because we simply don’t have enough properties to rent either.
24:02: And I think it’s still attractive for Brisbane as well when we look at, we talk about sort of the bang for your buck, what you get basically, and I know we talk about a 7.8 and a $25 million dollar property.
24:12: If you put that down into Sydney, and if you’re in the, in the harbor, for a house like that in, in Sydney, I don’t know.
24:19: I don’t know the Sydney market that well when we’re talking number wise, but.
24:22: , what you get up here, I was in Sydney recently and, even our son was talking about it and he just said, oh, I don’t think I could live down here.
24:30: There’s too much traffic, it’s too, too chaotic, it’s too busy, whereas, Brisbane is, is a bit quieter, and it’s a bit more laid back and a bit more relaxed.
24:39: and you do, I think, get a bit more bang for your buck when you look price wise.
24:43: I know we talk about, numbers and median prices going up and they’re sitting high compared to the, the averages, but it’s what you actually get that for that money that you spend as well.
24:53: Yeah, I’m just going to make mention of the fact that during November as well we’ve seen some changes in terms of APRA’s new macroprudential settings.
25:02: So for those that are not aware, we’ve seen some high debt to income lending.
25:08: We’ve seen some regulation put in place around that.
25:12: What this simply means is that banks will have to limit.
25:15: The number of loans that they write to people that are leveraging at more than 80% of the property value, and that’s designed to protect the financial system from systemic risk associated with people defaulting on their loans.
25:31: When we look at some of the actual numbers around how much or how many loans are being written to high debt to Income lending borrowers right now, it is below that threshold, so perhaps this is being put in place to protect the system from future property value gains.
25:49: But also, with the first home buyer guarantee scheme that’s come into effect, we also need to be aware that these new APRA regulations will perhaps somewhat restrict lending in that.
26:02: As well, so policy changes, like this, APRA, interventions like this, they can be headwinds to the market.
26:11: They can provide some handbrakes, but we’re not expecting to see any real change caused by this new, regulation that’s coming into effect next year either.
26:23: Perfect.
26:24: Well, if you’re, if you’re looking for property, don’t be afraid to reach out to Streamline.
26:28: We’re more than happy to help and take a call and chat to people about what’s happening up here in Brisbane as well.
26:33: Hm.
26:33: And look, we will be, providing some, forecasts of our own in terms of what we’re expecting to happen throughout 2026.
26:42: I don’t think it’s going to be a surprise to any of our listeners, that we are expecting growth to continue throughout, very Segments of the Brisbane market, simply because when you have record low listing volumes, and you’re not building enough replacement homes, you simply do not have enough to buy, compared to the volume of buyers in the market.
27:05: So there is only one way prices can go, and that is up, until we either see the buyer volume drop backward, or the supply levels, the number of properties available for sale increase.
27:15: Neither of Which are likely, based on the current fundamentals that we have here in Brisbane.
27:20: So if you’re thinking of getting into the market, hoping that prices might correct or in fact come backwards at some stage in the near future, I think you’re mistaken.
27:30: Based on what we’re seeing, based on our understanding of the market and being in the market on a day by day basis, prices will still continue to escalate in the future.
27:39: Yep, totally agree.
27:41: Excellent.
27:41: Well, that’s been a market update.
27:43: look, thank you very much for listening.
27:44: As usual, I will let Melinda wrap things up, from myself, take care, in the lead up to Christmas, make sure you get your shopping done nice and early, and, take care, and we’ll talk again next week, next fortnight, sorry.
27:57: Thanks very much.
27:58: Bye for now.
27:58: And thank you once again.
27:59: for joining us on the Brisbane Property Podcast.
28:02: If you have enjoyed this content, hit the subscribe button, like this video, share with family and friends, or leave us a review on your favorite podcast platform.
28:12: As always, we hope you have enjoyed this week’s episode, and we look forward to speaking with you again in 2 weeks’ time.
28:17: Bye for now.

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