In this month’s market update, Melinda and Scott Jennison from Streamline Property Buyers unpack what we’re seeing on the ground from an early January surge in buyer activity to some of the lowest listing volumes recorded in years. While many expected a slow start, competition returned fast, and well-presented properties were secured quickly.
They break down the latest data, including Brisbane’s 1.6% monthly dwelling growth, annual gains of 15.7%, and unit values rising at 18.3% over the past year. They also explore tight rental conditions, shifting yields, and the widening gap between Brisbane and the southern capitals.
You’ll hear their take on the strength of the unit market, the performance differences across price segments, and what recent interest rate increases and lending policy changes could mean for buyers in the months ahead. Lastly, they will share key insights from Herron Todd White and KPMG, including forward projections for houses and units across 2026 and beyond.
Listen On:
Ready to work with us directly? Click Here
Transcript
0:00: Hi everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Brisbane Property podcast, and it’s market update time.
0:05: It is.
0:05: I always love these market updates every month.
0:08: We do compile all of the research from various data houses, and we combine that with what we’re seeing on the ground.
0:15: And, gee whiz, the start of January was a little different to what we expected.
0:20: I must admit our team came back at various stages throughout the first couple of weeks of January, as we expected the market.
0:27: Market to slowly pick up.
0:28: However, it really did surge quite quickly, and there was a lot of buyer activity very early on, much earlier than we’ve seen in other years.
0:38: But also we saw some new listings become available, but they were snapped up so fast in those early weeks of January.
0:45: So, we’re going to tackle that information today.
0:48: We’re gonna discuss what we saw on the ground, but we’re equally going to be discussing all of the data that has come.
0:53: Through in terms of settled sales.
0:55: Now remember, the settled sales information relates to properties that would have transacted in December.
1:02: I think on a previous podcast, and I don’t know whether it was our last market update, when we talked about and we gave some inside info about talking to some local agents actually about what was coming up in the new year, and they said, look, there’s more properties coming, and I think we’re all very hopeful as, as you touched on at the start there that there was more properties coming in and that as you said, Melinda, there was.
1:21: Listings, which I think we all got quite excited thinking that the, the supply side of things might have picked up a little bit and there might have been some more properties coming to the market, but what we’ve seen as as you touched on earlier is some good properties came along.
1:33: They were snapped up quick.
1:35: They were.
1:35: And I feel that the listing side of things is probably gone back to almost what it was pre-Christmas where it’s very, very tight again, and yet there’s a lot of buyers there trying to snap up good properties as well.
1:46: Yeah, and I can confirm.
1:47: And that that’s what the data is showing as well.
1:49: SQM research listings data does show that both December and January, well below long-term trends in terms of those total listing volumes across all of Greater Brisbane.
2:00: In fact, the lowest listing volumes that we’ve seen for more than 5 or 6 years throughout our city, and that’s sort of, as long as the records that we have available to us, through the data house that we access.
2:12: But it, it is interesting, because At the same time as we’ve got this shortage of supply, we still have this strong elevated demand, and that came through in terms of buyer activity much earlier than it typically would come through in January.
2:25: Most people are still on holidays, you know, from the 5th of January onwards, but that’s when we really started to see a surge in buyer activity, which is unusual, and it’s probably indicative of current market conditions more than anything else.
2:38: And we saw a lot of agents come back early as well, which obviously those, Good properties that we said got snapped up, a lot of agents came back cos they, they probably thought well I’ve got some good properties now, I’ll get the year started on a, on a high and they did because a lot of those properties obviously, sold pretty quick as well.
2:53: Yeah, yeah, I think when you layer that urgency in terms of buyer demand with really tight supply conditions, of course that actually creates competition in the market, and of course it is that competition that continues to push prices up, and that’s what we’ve seen now, of course, throughout December, we saw prices escalate.
3:12: going to touch on that, but we do expect the same to be seen in January simply because of the transactions that we were observing and participating in on behalf of clients.
3:21: Yeah, and we’ll obviously get into some numbers shortly, but, it’s definitely not the sort of market that is cooling off.
3:28: No, that’s the activity that that is normal in a cooling off market.
3:31: No.
3:32: I, I think it’s.
3:33: up and, and definitely there’s a lot of heat in the market, which resembles sort of summertime in Brisbane, really, that heat side of things.
3:40: So, and I will apologize as well the people that are on, on film for my little scar on the face here.
3:45: I’ve, when I talk about heating up and the sun in, in Brisbane and Queensland, I should have probably a bit more slip, slop, slap when I was a bit younger, so.
3:54: Wear that sunscreen and make sure your kids do, we’re telling our kids to wear sunscreen all the time now too, so yeah, Brisbane.
4:00: It’s, it’s a very, very hot market.
4:02: we’ve seen some strong growth again in the last month, in the month of January, which has definitely put Brisbane up there.
4:09: Amongst those capitals recording some of the best results, basically, yes, Brisbane dwelling values increased 1.6% across the month of January in terms of settled sales data.
4:19: Now the combined capital value change was 0.7%, so Brisbane’s still surging well ahead of the average for capital city markets across the country, but we are still sitting behind Perth.
4:33: Which again posted the strongest monthly growth.
4:35: Perth sat at 1.9%. So things are really strong over on the west coast, as they are here in Brisbane.
4:42: Now, just for context, and we always like to provide that comparison, Sydney and Melbourne both returned modest positive growth of 0.4% each.
4:52: So again, Brisbane, well ahead of those markets, and it is something a lot of our Clients that we work with at Streamline Property Buyers are in other markets, perhaps based in Sydney and Melbourne, and they’re really not understanding what we are seeing here in Brisbane and what’s happening on the ground in Brisbane.
5:08: So these numbers in terms of dwelling value changes sort of confirm the difference in market conditions throughout different capitals around Australia.
5:17: And quarterly Brisbane, 5.1%. Again, just slightly behind Perth, leading at 5.7%. So very, very strong in that area.
5:27: I, I mean, over the year, Brisbane very firm on top with 15.7%. Again, just behind Perth on 18.2%, but well ahead of the other capitals.
5:36: Yeah, really strong growth on an annual basis, and we do want to break that down into housing market data and unit data here in Brisbane, because again, the trend here is different to other capitals.
5:46: So we will We’ll get to that as we continue on in this podcast.
5:49: Now I know you’ve got a couple of reports that you’ve had a look at, so in, in the, the market update research that Melinda’s done, show a little bit of the one, the Herron Todd White one, monthly review if you can.
6:00: So Heron Todd White, a evaluation firm here in Australia, they produce a monthly report, and a lot of people know their reports based on the property clock.
6:10: They actually place each.
6:12: City market, and many regional markets in terms of, are they in a rising market, a declining market, are they at the top of the cycle, or are they at the bottom of the cycle.
6:22: Now, Brisbane, in both segments of the market, the house market and the unit market, are still being earmarked as rising markets, according to Herron Todd White, and that’s the valuation firm that we’re referencing here.
6:35: So, the report that they’ve produced for the month of December also points to population growth as being a primary driver, constrained housing supply, it’s what we’ve talked a lot about on this podcast as well.
6:48: Elevated construction costs, so a lot of the time the replacement value of properties that we’re able to buy is simply higher than the, the cost to buy, and that’s also pushing prices up.
7:01: And also, let’s not forget Brisbane’s increasing.
7:04: Profile ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games, and these are all key supporting factors driving demand for property here in Brisbane and in fact throughout Southeast Queensland as a whole.
7:15: One other thing they did touch on there as well, was one of the highlights was the standout story was that the strength of the entry-level property market, particularly that that affordable attached housing side of things.
7:26: Yeah, and that’s right, attached housing.
7:27: So that’s the unit market here in.
7:30: Brisbane, and it is very different to other capital city markets, as we will unpack, in terms of the results that have been achieved, not only in the last month and quarter and 12 months, but over the last couple of years, it’s been a really strong story for attached dwellings here in Brisbane.
7:46: That’s the unit and the townhouse market segment.
7:49: One other one which, and I know we talk about it, quite a bit, and people always ask.
7:54: I get, I get, I get this all.
7:56: The time, what’s it look like, what’s Brisbane look like and and look some people could say if we turn around and say oh look, we think it’s great, it’s, it’s looking positive, the market’s gonna keep going up.
8:05: We could be seen to be biased in that way because we we’re locals and we and we love it up here.
8:10: But it was interesting when, when others come out and KPMG had a property market outlook, and obviously for, for 2026 it’s pretty clear that they’re saying that the strength expected, To exceed and beyond 2026.
8:25: Yeah, that’s right.
8:25: So KPMG have put out a residential property market outlook.
8:30: the report was released in January 2026, and in that report, KPMG reported that Brisbane’s strength, Is expected to extend well beyond the current year, so that’s well beyond 2026, and it’s going to be supported by the ongoing population inflows, as well as supply constraints.
8:50: So again, these fundamental imbalances between demand and supply.
8:55: The KPMG forecast also has Brisbane house prices rising around 11% throughout 2026, and unit prices rising about 8% for the year, before moderating to some extent throughout 20.
9:10: 27, however, still remaining in that positive, strong growth territory.
9:16: That’s an interesting one when we’ve seen what units have done over the past, wow, since COVID, I think if you go back to then, and they’re sort of, they’re forecasting that houses will probably,, to start to pick up a little bit more than the unit market.
9:31: I, I’ll watch that space because I still think the unit market is, is a very, very competitive market in that affordable space as well.
9:37: And in fact, that’s one thing that the report did go into in detail, that, affordability pressures will actually start to shape a two-speed property market with the more affordable segment of the market.
9:50: Continuing to perform very strongly, and their prediction is that growth at the upper end may be capped to some extent by borrowing capacity.
9:59: We like to go into more detail and not segment the market purely by affordability based on price, but affordability based on product type, median value in the specific location, because we know and we can see, based on our on the ground.
10:15: Observations and very local data that, you know, there’s some locations where median values are actually much higher, but the local demographic in that area have incomes to support much higher prices.
10:27: So, we’ve got to be careful when we’re talking about affordability.
10:30: It can mean different things to different analysts, and that’s why I just wanted to bring that up today.
10:35: So, Brisbane dwelling values, any new listeners?
10:38: The general sort of flow here.
10:40: We we’ll go through the dwellings, we’ll then break it down to to houses and units, different segments of the market.
10:46: We’ll touch on the rental side of things.
10:49: but again, Greater Brisbane.
10:51: so just any new listeners that have jumped on this year, welcome.
10:53: For those loyal listeners, welcome back.
10:55: But yeah, just just to give you an idea.
10:57: So dwelling values in Greater Brisbane, this is all from, totality data, increased 1%.
11:02: 0.6% over the month, 5.1% over the quarter, and 15.7% over the year, taking the median dwelling value to 1,054,555 dollars.
11:15: And look, I think it’s important to talk about the pace of growth because when we compare to the end of December, the quarterly pace of growth here in Brisbane has eased very slightly.
11:27: That is the quarterly rolling result was slightly higher after, in the three months up to the end of December than it was in the 3 months up to the end of January.
11:35: But the biggest story is that Brisbane’s growth is still compounding from an already very elevated base.
11:42: So we’re still well ahead of growth in other capital city markets.
11:45: And we will be watching as to whether that slowdown in the quarterly figures is seasonal due to the fact that we’ve now seen that that Christmas slowdown or where it, whether it is in fact a general slowdown in the market.
11:59: Before we jump in, well, as I mentioned, we will jump into the housing, but just the segments, and I know that we’ve, this has been interesting to watch over the last few years, how we’ve seen different parts of the, of the market perform in different ways and, And it’s interesting the trend that you sort of see across most of the capitals that are doing well, put it that way, is the, the bottom segment is obviously performing the highest.
12:22: That’s right, that’s the lowest 25% of property values are growing at the fastest rate, and so we segment that data into the lowest 25% of property values, the middle 50% of property values, and then the highest 25% of property value.
12:37: So, yes, here in Brisbane, that, that more affordable segment, the lowest 25% of properties that have transacted, those properties rose 6.8% in the three months to the end of December, whereas the more expensive segment of the market, the most expensive 25% of, property values, that rose 4.6%. What is interesting is that the gap between the segment.
13:02: is not as extreme.
13:03: It’s not as wide as it was about 5 or 6 months ago.
13:08: So, it tells us that the, the top end of the market has started to re-accelerate in terms of price growth, when we’re looking at that six monthly trend.
13:18: And that’s something that we need to watch as we move into the months throughout 2026, especially now that we’ve seen an interest rate rise in the first week of February.
13:27: And and obviously prop track they saw numbers similar to that, obviously positive growth and that sort of reflects similar to the the the trend that we’re seeing in totality as well.
13:37: If we jump into housing values, so we break it down now, housing values, we saw in the month increase 1.5%, 4.9% over the quarter, and 15.1% over the year, and the median value now for a, House is $1,149,000 589 dollars.
13:56: That’s the median value, everybody, so please take that number in, $1,149,589.
14:04: You cannot buy a house 10 kilometers from the city, you know, for the median value.
14:09: It, it is tough to do so.
14:11: There may be compromises, and we still get inquiry for people that have budgets of $900,000 wanting to buy.
14:16: Sort of, you know, in the inner city locations, it’s just not possible, given where median values have shifted to in such a short space of time.
14:24: Now, I will say compared to December, January’s growth is the same on a month by month basis in the house market.
14:30: So we’ve seen consistency there in the rate of growth, and right now, you know, demand is still elevated, especially in the affordable end and the middle part of the housing market.
14:41: As we move up to the more expensive properties.
14:44: The more prestigious properties in the market, we see a softening in demand.
14:48: Simply there’s fewer buyers at that level, and therefore we see those properties take a little longer to transact, whereas that affordable end of the market properties are transacting very, very fast, and buyers need to be aware of those nuances in the market.
15:03: If you just quickly flick through the other capitals, just for interest’s sake, Sydney, 0.3%, Melbourne, 0.2%, Brisbane, as we said, 1.5%. Adelaide 1.3%, Perth at 1.9%, Hobart 0.4%. Darwin at 1.6% and Canberra at 0.5%. And what Scott was quoting there was the monthly change in house values for each of those capital city markets.
15:27: So Brisbane in second place in terms of monthly price movements in the house market behind Perth.
15:33: As mentioned earlier, Proptrac, again that data resembles the same type of trend moving in a positive direction as well.
15:40: unit values.
15:41: So again, the unit market, very, very strong performer in the.
15:44: Market.
15:45: So what we’ve seen there, we’ve seen an increase of 2% over the month, 6.1% over the quarter, and 18.3% over the year.
15:53: And again, as we touched on earlier, median unit value here of $824,764.
16:00: It’s a lot of money for a median value in that unit market.
16:03: That’s the attached dwelling segment, and a lot of that is that demand that’s being brought forward by federal government incentives for first home buyers.
16:11: But also, it is the more affordable segment of the market.
16:14: So, a lot of people have shifted property buying preferences to attached dwellings, simply based on affordability and lifestyle type drivers.
16:23: Now, you, just to actually reflect on those figures once again, 18.3% has been the annual growth rate in the unit market here in Brisbane, compared to 15.1% annual growth in the house market.
16:36: Now, by long trends, both segments have really outperformed here in Brisbane compared to Brisbane’s long-term trend, but also compared to other capital city markets.
16:47: But, we cannot underestimate that strength that we’ve seen in the unit market, because even on quarterly figures at the moment, the unit market is shifting at 6.1% quarterly growth, whereas the house market is shifting at 4.9% quarterly growth.
17:01: So, think of that compounding.
17:04: When you do have that higher rate of growth, you definitely see that equity growth escalating at a much faster rate, and many people that have been in the market have seen that, especially if they’ve had units in the last couple of years.
17:16: They have outperformed the house market in that period of time.
17:20: Prop track data obviously reinforced that as well in the same direction.
17:24: I think, as you touched on earlier, it’s, it’s really, I mean, that median value of 824,000.
17:30: That sub $1 million dollar price point, it’s so competitive and that’s where a lot of people are going for that.
17:36: , as we talked, that unit, type of setup, so that it’s a bit more affordable and lifestyle as you touched on as well.
17:43: And can I just say, what is happening here in Brisbane is not happening across all other capital city markets.
17:48: For example, Melbourne is in decline.
17:50: When we look at Melbourne’s figures, it actually went slightly backwards in the unit market over the month, negative 0.2% growth.
17:59: On a quarterly basis, it’s also negative 0.2%. So, very different compared to Brisbane.
18:06: All other capital City markets for those units are in positive growth territory, however, not at the same rate of escalation, meaning Sydney, 0.2%, Adelaide, 0.8% growth, Hobart, 1%, Darwin, 1.4%, Canberra, 0.1%, and Perth, once again, being another capital city market that is outperforming in the unit market.
18:29: They had 2.3% growth in the unit market throughout the month of January.
18:34: So, really strong markets.
18:36: Brisbane and Perth, not so strong elsewhere.
18:39: Very different setup, the unit market.
18:40: I can talk for Brisbane, not so much for Perth, but very different unit market, here compared to the likes of Sydney and Melbourne, that’s for sure.
18:47: The rental market, again, wow, I don’t even have to look at the numbers here.
18:51: I think I can basically say that it’s, it’s super, super tight, and rents are going up, and, and there’s not a lot to rent in Brisbane.
18:58: That’s a bit of a summary.
18:59: Yeah, look, you know, rent growth is still well ahead of inflation.
19:03: We’ve got rent growth in the house market at 6.3%.% annually, in the unit market, it’s 6.8% annually.
19:10: So, the unit market, we are seeing higher rates of return based on rental price growth alone, but obviously, more recently, we’ve seen higher rates of return based on capital growth as well.
19:23: Yields, however, are being challenged simply because we’re seeing those property prices increase, and in some instances, for example, in the unit market, we actually saw yields compressed slightly.
19:35: They were at.
19:35: 4.1% gross yields in December.
19:38: That’s dropped now to 4% gross yields, and that’s simply because we’re seeing the value of units escalate at a faster pace than the value of rents for units.
19:47: So, you know, it is something that, you know, investors who are looking for cash flow plays, they’re finding it a lot harder here in Brisbane, simply because the capital growth opportunity has been so strong recently.
19:59: For the house market, yields are currently sitting at 3.2%, and that is the same as it was back in December.
20:04: Yeah, so.
20:05: Very, very, very tight market in that rental side of it, so that’s good for investors to understand those, those gross yields that we went through there.
20:12: So, bit of a summary.
20:14: Look, I think Brisbane obviously, it’s a pretty clear message.
20:16: I think at the Brisbane, Brisbane it it started 26 with momentum.
20:20: I don’t think it’s, it’s changed and it’s going to keep, keep working that way.
20:25: I think there’s some challenges obviously with finding properties.
20:27: That’s a good, good one to start with.
20:29: Yeah, obviously stock is, is one of the biggest challenges, but let’s not forget that there’s some downside risk, and I would like to address that.
20:36: Interest rates have just increased.
20:38: Now, what impact that may have on the market is yet to be seen.
20:42: I know that conversations that I’ve been having and our team have been having with selling agents.
20:47: Some selling agents are struggling to even book seller appointments.
20:52: Others are getting the appointments, but the sellers are uncertain about whether they’ll bring their properties to the market, and these are some of the reasons why we’re not seeing those listing volumes recover, and we’re seeing such low numbers of new opportunities becoming available for sale.
21:07: Obviously, at the moment, because inflation remains well above the RBA’s target range, it’s Likely that we could see further movement in terms of those interest rates in the coming months.
21:19: It’s still too early to tell, but that is a risk for buyers, which does erode borrowing capacity, of course, and it can also flow quickly into, you know, escalated borrowing costs.
21:29: It’s just important for people to understand the impact that that can have on the cost to hold.
21:34: Credit conditions are also tightening, so, from the first of February, APRRA has set their limits.
21:41: On the debt to income ratio lending.
21:43: So, that may also dampen some demand from some buyers who are trying to leverage a much higher debt to income ratios.
21:52: So I think that all of these things combined do have an effect of potentially handbraking markets, but it will be interesting to see whether that does in fact translate into, you know, lower buyer demand, especially here in Brisbane.
22:06: I think some things are obviously Supporting it as well, I mean unemployment remains very, very low.
22:11: I know that people are, you hear people talking about looking for for workers and and even trades, especially trades.
22:19: Now that they’ve started to, to start all the infrastructure to build up towards the Olympic Games.
22:23: People are looking for trades, you hear people talking about they’re they’re moving from the southern states up to to Brisbane to get some work, and to earn, jump on the back of that, I guess, but again that unemployment side of it.
22:35: That’s going to keep that there, the government incentives, they’re all well with home buyer incentives.
22:41: So it, it’s still pushing the pressure on that.
22:44: Obviously, supply is probably the hardest bit for Brisbane, I think at the moment, and it’s something we just, we just can’t look away from.
22:51: That’s exactly right.
22:52: And look, supply is lifting slowly in terms of approvals, but we’re really not seeing the construction of new dwellings keep up with what we need.
23:02: So this is a long term.
23:04: Structural shift that needs to happen.
23:06: we need to start with escalated approvals, and then we need to actually see that those approvals translate into completions.
23:13: Once we see construction completions start to escalate, that’s when we’ll get excited, because we know that we are addressing the underlying issue of supply constraint.
23:23: Of course, that’s long-term supply, in terms of short-term supply, those listing volumes do remain tight.
23:29: Sellers need confidence to sell.
23:31: Part of the issue there is There’s nothing to buy, and so there’s this vicious cycle where sellers get stuck, not willing to make a decision to sell, very reluctant to sell before they buy, knowing that the rental market is also so tight.
23:44: So, yeah, pretty tight conditions here in Brisbane, and that’s why we will expect to continue to see prices escalate.
23:51: Although, we don’t expect that to be even across the board because of those affordability constraints that we have addressed in previous podcast episodes.
23:58: We didn’t want to make it sound doom and gloom for people.
24:00: But it is, it is tough for buyers out there, hence the reason we operate at Streamlined Property Buyers.
24:06: Here to help people to get into the market and achieve what they’re trying to do, whether it’s buying a house or commercial property or whether it’s an investment property as well.
24:14: I mean that’s what we’re here for.
24:15: We have the contacts with agents, so it gives them a little bit of an advantage than our, our clients to, to get into the market as well.
24:21: So it is a tough market, but it’s, it’s a very, very strong positive market as far as I’m concerned.
24:26: Yeah, absolutely, and I think the buyers that.
24:28: will succeed are those that actually remain diligent, they’re ready to act, and when the right property becomes available, they’re decisive, and they move very quickly.
24:37: They’ll probably be the ones that end up ahead because there’s a lot of speed in the market for the right opportunities, and buyers need to be ready to act if the right opportunity becomes available.
24:46: Perfect.
24:47: That’s been our market update for January 2026.
24:51: as usual, I will let Melinda wrap things up.
24:54: Don’t forget to put your sunscreen on, as I said, but, yeah.
24:56: Take care.
24:57: I’ll talk again in the next podcast, but I’ll let Melinda wrap things up.
25:00: Take care and bye for now.
25:01: Thank you once again for joining us on the Brisbane Property Podcast.
25:04: We hope you have enjoyed this market update episode.
25:07: If you have, please feel free to share with friends and family.
25:09: We would love for you to leave us a review on your favorite podcast player.
25:13: If you are watching on YouTube, please leave us a comment, share with us what you’ve liked about this episode, and we look forward to bringing you more amazing content in the near future.
25:23: We’ll talk to you again soon.
25:24: Bye for now.