Brisbane property values moved into negative growth territory in July 2026, but what does that really mean for buyers?
In this month’s market update, Scott and Melinda unpack the latest data and what they’re seeing on the ground, including softer buyer confidence, longer days on market and emerging opportunities.
In this episode, we discuss:
- Brisbane’s move into negative growth
- Why median values don’t tell the full story
- Changing buyer and seller expectations
- Longer days on market and lower auction clearance rates
- House and unit performance
- Brisbane’s tight rental market
- The long-term fundamentals supporting Brisbane
For buyers, softer conditions may mean more choice, more time for due diligence and greater opportunity to negotiate.
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Transcript
0:00: In this episode of the Brisbane Property podcast, we’ve got the July market update.
0:04: And Brisbane property values have moved into negative growth territory throughout July 2026.
0:11: We’re going to unpack what this means for you if you’re looking to buy anytime soon.
0:16: Hello everyone and welcome back to the Brisbane Property podcast with Scott and Melinda Jannison.
0:20: And it’s market update time for July 2026.
0:24: That’s right.
0:24: Now, in this episode, not only are we going to cover what the big data portals are showing us, which we’ve probably all heard by now, based on what the media have been telling us, but we’re really going to unpack what this means for you, and also share some insights in terms of what we’re actually seeing on the ground, because I think that becomes really important in times where market movements.
0:49: Are more uncertain.
0:51: Oh, I think I can start it off on a really positive note here and the weather in Brisbane is beautiful at the moment.
0:57: Winter time and our days are in the mid-twenties, so that’s just to rub it into the people in the southern states, and people that don’t enjoy summer like winter like we do as well.
1:07: Yeah, interesting, changes in the market, and I think we’ll go over a lot of detail as we run through some numbers.
1:13: We’ve seen a little bit of a slowdown, since this is probably the first time since the federal budget.
1:19: and obviously we’ve seen that sort of bit of a slowdown rather than a loss of momentum, I’d say.
1:23: Well, we’ve definitely seen a loss of momentum in, and that’s been building since the federal budget, but now we’re in a, a downturn, and the median values for Brisbane, for dwellings, have actually, for the first time in many months, turned negative.
1:39: Now, of course, we’re really going to, unpack what this means for you, also help you understand what’s happening in that market, because, What we’re seeing on the ground is a little bit of a standoff, really, in a lot of instances between buyers and sellers.
1:57: We are seeing a lot of sellers hold firm on price, and those sellers are not obviously meeting the market, and they are therefore not part of the transactions that are selling.
2:08: We are also seeing instances where there is motivation to sell, so we’re seeing vendors meet the market, wherever that market might be.
2:17: And of course, the buyer.
2:18: Confidence levels have dropped a lot since the budget, and because of that, buyers think that property values have fallen a lot more than they actually have, and so we are even seeing instances where, you know, some buyers are picking up some, some good buys, where there is motivation from the sellers to transact.
2:38: Now, there’s a very big difference that that I’m going to highlight here.
2:42: When there’s not motivation to sell, we are seeing days on market extend.
2:48: So we’re seeing properties take a lot longer to sell, and we’re really going to unpack what that composition of listing volumes is looking like, because new listings are actually contracting.
2:59: There’s fewer new properties becoming available for sale, and yet total listings are increasing, and that’s a result of sales volumes dropping.
3:08: So, I know I’ve touched on a lot of the information we’re going to take a deeper dive into today, but that’s ultimately what’s happening out there in Brisbane.
3:15: I think you’ve almost done a pretty good summary for what’s happening.
3:18: What’s actually happening.
3:19: I, I totally agree.
3:20: I think the sellers are definitely at a different level.
3:23: Yes.
3:23: They’re, they’re staying fairly firm.
3:25: I was gonna say stubborn, but yeah, they’re they’re they’re staying pretty firm on on their prices.
3:31: I totally agree on the opportunities.
3:34: I think there are opportunities there.
3:37: I’m not saying we didn’t say bargains or anything like that, but there are opportunities if there’s, motivation to sell by the vendor, under certain circumstances, Negotiations, that’s something that, yeah, we’re, we’re negotiating again, which is great, as opposed to complete multi-offs.
3:56: Some properties are still going to multi-offer, so it’s not selling.
3:59: Yeah, and there’s still some like that, that we’re having that, that happen.
4:03: I’ll throw a quick question at you, Linda, which, I, we didn’t talk about this at all, and, I’m just going to throw a curveball at you as well.
4:10: When we talk about Brisbane’s property prices showing negative growth, and you said for some time now, when is, The last time you can remember that Brisbane’s properties were actually negative?
4:23: Can, can you remember that?
4:24: I believe it was back in 2022 when we had that very short and sharp downturn in the Brisbane market.
4:32: I believe we, interest rates went up.
4:35: Yeah, interest rates started to increase in 2022.
4:38: We then saw a lot of, fear mongering in the market.
4:41: We saw a lot of uncertainty and confidence dropped a lot.
4:46: Now, if you remember back then, We heard through the media that because interest rates were coming off historical lows, it was likely that a lot of people would fall into mortgage default.
4:57: Now, history has shown that did not happen, because we all know that mortgage serviceability buffers are always, put in place at 3% above where people’s, loan is actually taken out, so the interest rate at which they’re actually offered, so that provides a level of, Confidence that people can afford to continue to pay their mortgage, even if interest rates are higher.
5:21: Right now, with interest rates sitting at around 6%, we’re seeing those serviceability buffers still in place at 3% above that rate.
5:29: So, anyone that’s taken out a recent mortgage has still been assessed at a much higher rate.
5:35: So, that gives some confidence to people that they’re unlikely to be forced selling, and in fact, if we started to see some Increase in listings citywide, new listings, that would indicate that people perhaps are stretched on affordability.
5:51: We’re simply not seeing that, and in fact, month on month, we’ve seen a decline in those new listings.
5:56: So, sellers are not confident to bring their properties to the market when buyer confidence is down, because, of course, sellers always want the best possible price when they’re selling, and when they think buyers are not in the market to pay the best price, they’re actually gonna hold off.
6:11: Unless there’s urgency to sell, and that’s where we keep talking about the fact that when we see a market where sales volumes are down, but we see that median value trend down, that is a result of what is actually selling.
6:24: You cannot assume that every property in the market suddenly is worth less, because a median value is trending down, and that’s an important distinction to make.
6:33: So, just over 4 years, basically, since we’ve had that first, the last negative.
6:39: not as bad, and you look at it, I mean the decline in other areas like Sydney.
6:44: 4% fall in Sydney, 3.4% in Melbourne, 2.1% in Canberra.
6:48: So there’s some bigger areas in Australia, and as we talk about all the time, different markets within different markets as well.
6:54: And just to be clear for people that, that may be following along with those stats that Scott just quoted, that’s over the quarter to the end of July that we’ve seen these falls in other markets.
7:05: So, obviously Brisbane is now showing a quarterly fall of 0.6%. And that is simply as a result of the totality data adjusting downward.
7:17: And what I mean by that is, each month, Totality will publish their, their data, and then throughout the month, they revise those, published, or that published information on the basis of further refinement and information that’s coming through.
7:31: So, for June 2026, the result was revised down, and it Did put June data into slightly negative growth territory.
7:41: We’ve consequently seen July in negative territory.
7:44: So it’s placed the quarterly growth figures for Brisbane at-0.6%. For context, and I think this is a very important thing to note, really, we’re back to prices that we were seeing in April this year.
7:59: We’re not talking about prices that were seen five or 10 years ago.
8:03: These are prices that were transacting or median values as per April.
8:08: So, we’re really not seeing large declines, and in fact, we needed to see further stability in the market, because we were seeing such strong price growth month on month.
8:18: So, we are in a much more stable market in terms of the, the buyer and seller activity.
8:23: It’s more normal than it has been for the last 5 years.
8:27: That’s a conversation I had with an agent, just last weekend.
8:31: we talked about the market at the moment and how it was, prior to COVID, and it was more of a normal market.
8:37: He, he actually said to me, he said, oh, you know, if we’re lucky we’ll probably get 5 groups through an open inspection.
8:43: so he said he actually said as well, I can see things going back to a little bit of more of a normal market.
8:48: I, I think when you look at it as well, and I always talk about long-term ownership, I’ll call it that, I was gonna say investing, whether it’s investing or or or owning your property.
8:56: And it’s always that long-term play, it’s not short-term, so we don’t want to look very, very short.
9:01: And if you look at everything that’s been thrown at the property market recently, affordability side of things and mortgage serviceability constraints, we’ve we’ve seen three cash rate rises in 2026.
9:14: We’ve seen higher fuel costs, and a lot of that is obviously coming from the Middle East war side of things, and we’ve seen a government with a massive change.
9:24: Budget.
9:24: Now you can’t throw more I will call them negative things at a property market and we get a small decline like this.
9:32: Yeah.
9:32: I don’t think it’s it’s definitely not hit a panic button for me, that’s for sure, but you know we’ve, it’s everything negative or everything that could probably affect the property market has been thrown at it and it’s still stayed fairly strong.
9:45: So obviously give it time to recover and things like that as well.
9:49: as you said.
9:51: People might have to buy, there’s good opportunity.
9:53: Home buyers, I, I think if you are an upsizer or a downsizer, I do think there’s opportunity at the moment.
10:00: Yeah, and it’s a great, it’s a great market to be buying and selling into at the same time.
10:05: So if you are looking to sell and upgrade your home, it’s a great market to do so, because there is less competition when you go to buy, especially if You are increasing the budget to buy something larger or closer in, something that’s more expensive than what you already own.
10:22: Obviously, there may not be as many buyers to purchase the home that you’re selling, but that’s going to play out in reduced competition when you buy into the same market.
10:32: Now, median days on market, I mentioned before, a lot of properties are taking longer to sell.
10:37: Totality of recorded the median days on market for Brisbane to be 23 days.
10:41: That’s up 3 days from last month.
10:44: What we’re seeing on the ground is that there are more properties sitting for longer, and a lot of properties are actually being pulled from the market if they haven’t sold after a number of weeks as well.
10:57: And so, that is a real trend that we are observing.
11:00: And selling agents are also sharing those insights with us.
11:03: When there is genuine motivation to sell, those sellers are likely more likely to meet the market.
11:10: That is, they’re likely to accept whatever buyers are prepared to pay.
11:13: And it’s the buyers that have lost confidence.
11:15: Scott, you’ve been through so many of those headwinds, as, as genuine reasons why buyers have lost confidence.
11:23: However, historically, we also note that when we see these times of uncertainty, when we see consumer confidence drop, like it has in recent months, there are opportunities in the market.
11:38: In fact, personally, we have actually picked up another asset for our own portfolio, because there are good, Buying opportunities out there, and we see these as a blip in the radar based on long-term fundamentals for Brisbane, which we’re going to get into today as well.
11:54: So then, what, what sort of result has that had then on listing numbers, when we look at the market now as well?
12:00: So, total listing volumes, that’s all properties that are available for sale on the market right now.
12:06: The stock levels are Increasing, and the reason for that is that fewer transactions are taking place.
12:12: So those, older listings include properties that are being brought to the market as new listings, as well as those that perhaps have been on the market for 30, 60, or even up to 90 or 180 days.
12:24: We’re seeing more stock available, which gives buyers a lot more choice.
12:30: Where we would have concern is if we, at the same time, we’re seeing an increase in new listings, that’s properties that are just coming onto the market.
12:40: Those listings are typically less than 30 days old.
12:43: However, we’re not seeing that.
12:45: In fact, we’re seeing a reduction in new listings here in Brisbane.
12:50: And that is a result of sellers not feeling confident about getting the best price for their particular property when they go to sell.
12:57: So, a lot of sellers are sitting on their hands, they’re also uncertain in this market and they’re delaying their selling decision.
13:05: Anecdotally, we obviously can’t prove this in the data, but we are seeing a lot more homes come to us off-market.
13:14: We’re seeing selling agents call us, they’re SMSing us.
13:17: We’re seeing emails come through about properties that are available for sale that are not on the listing portals.
13:23: You can understand why.
13:25: There may be a level of motivation to sell, but the investment to bring, to bring a property onto the market, paying for that listing on realestate.com or domain.
13:34: It’s a significant investment for a lot of sellers, so they’re testing it off market first to see whether there is genuine, or there are genuine buyers in the market.
13:44: A lot of the time, like those that are on market, we are also seeing that, that mismatch between a seller’s expectations, and where the buyer potentially might see value.
13:56: And that’s obviously the gap that continues to widen.
13:59: This is also being played out in auction clearance rates.
14:02: Anyone that has been following the Brisbane market may have seen auction clearance rates throughout July, actually tipped below 30% for some of the weekends.
14:13: That means, you know, only less than 1 in 3 properties were selling at auction.
14:18: Many were passing in.
14:20: The price expectations sit.
14:23: Across our team, we attended multiple auctions throughout July.
14:27: Whether we were bidding at those auctions, or whether we were attending to gather market intelligence, what we consistently observed is where properties were passing in, there was a mix of those that had very few or no registered bidders turn up, or alternatively, there was a volume of registered bidders, but where they were prepared to go to was still below the level.
14:49: That the sellers were willing to sell.
14:51: So that gap is widening, and that is recorded as a pass in and not, and it does not become part of the settled sales data, or the auction clearance rates data.
15:00: So, the uncertainty in the market is real.
15:02: We’re seeing uncertainty from buyers.
15:04: We’re also seeing uncertainty from sellers, and this has caused a much, slower rate of, of transactions.
15:11: Those sales volumes have definitely decreased.
15:14: I, I, I think part of that, obviously, as you said, Listing numbers increasing, but then if people, as you said earlier, if the sellers are not getting what they’re actually wanting for it because they’re staying, fairly strong on what they think their property is worth, that’s when after a while, as you just mentioned, they’ll pull it from the market, and then that takes that property away from the market.
15:36: Generally what we find, as Melinda mentioned as well as buyers’ agents, whether it’s precom, To the market, the property, or whether it’s been pulled.
15:46: We then find at the moment, and you touched on this a little bit, agents are then calling us, saying, oh they’re thinking of listing again, they’re thinking they’re wanting to sell it again.
15:55: They might have had a little bit of a reduction, they might have had a bit of an adjustment, but we are getting those opportunities come back to us then sometimes where, where they’re reconsidering their position and whether they want to sell or not.
16:06: again, depends on the motivation.
16:09: but I think that mismatch between the buyers, it definitely something that has that has changed.
16:16: the biggest thing we probably see at the moment is not so much I feel not so much a a massive change in the market.
16:24: But a massive, a change in confidence and sentiment in people.
16:27: When you say not a massive change in the market, the the fundamentals of the market, whereas we, we’ve seen a shift in what we’re observing in the market, caused by sentiment and, and a reduction in the buyer volume.
16:41: So demand has definitely been impacted.
16:44: We’re not seeing a corresponding surge in supply through new listings, and if we were, would be more concerned, but because we’re not seeing a surge in new listings, the fundamentals remain firmly in place from our perspective.
16:57: And once confidence improves, we absolutely believe that some buyers will be stepping back into the market.
17:04: Because that demand that existed just three months ago here in Brisbane, is sitting on the sidelines.
17:09: It has not completely disappeared.
17:11: Admittedly, some of the investor demand may not come back, but, A lot of that first homebuyer demand that, you know, it’s simply disappeared.
17:19: There’s hardly any first home buyers out in the market, because they’re concerned that they might buy and fall into a position of negative equity.
17:26: The reality is, what becomes available for sale tomorrow, or next week, or next month, it’s not gonna be the same home, or the same property, that becomes available for sale 6 months from now, or 12 months from now.
17:38: So, it’s important to be in the market, if you have, the motivation to buy, and remembering that not every property is following the median value trend, as we are seeing evidence of out and about every single weekend and throughout our negotiations midweek.
17:57: There’s buying opportunities, 100% when there’s motivation to sell.
18:01: However, in many instances, even under multiple offer, we’re seeing strong prices still.
18:07: Achieved for some properties, and we are also seeing some multiple offer scenarios result in no sale, because the buyers are still not willing to meet a level at which the sellers are willing to accept for a sale to take place.
18:19: So, a very mixed market, what we would consider more normal market conditions, and it’s important to, to navigate through the uncertain times.
18:28: Do not listen to media headlines, but understand what’s happening in the market that you’re looking to buy.
18:33: Buy into if you are a buyer right now.
18:35: And if you are a homeowner and you just have concerns, do not believe everything that the media’s telling you because every property is behaving differently.
18:43: I, I think one thing to think about, we, we did a podcast, about the, your purchasing your own property and how, how big of an investment that is as well, your own home.
18:54: Now, don’t forget that, as we said, there’s a, there’s a blip in the radar here that’s happening.
19:00: I, and we talk about the opportunities, and I think there’s also opportunity there for people that if they’re thinking of relocating, whether you’re interstate or whether you’re an expat or whatever it may be and you’re looking to get into Brisbane, there are opportunities.
19:14: And this, this could be the opportunity to actually buy it and go, you know what, we’ll get to the details in a little while, but the rental market is very, very, very tight.
19:22: So you can actually buy it then, get a tenant in there.
19:26: Or do some work to it, whatever you want, but you’ve actually got into the market at a time where there’s opportunity to buy, to get that house as well.
19:34: Notwithstanding the fact that we understand negative gearing rules have changed, capital gains tax rules have changed, and not everybody has the capacity that they, they had prior to budget night to be able to do that.
19:44: But, fundamentals have not changed because of the budget.
19:47: Fundamentals have not changed because of, any interest rate movements.
19:52: We still are not building enough.
19:53: Homes, we still don’t have the capacity to build affordable homes, and because of that, there will be a flaw under any, price, falls that we see across the city.
20:05: You need to be in the market to find the opportunities as they appear, because there’s not a lot of them, but when they appear, it’s a great time to jump on without that additional competition that is just sitting on the sidelines at the moment.
20:17: Now, I know, we, we do jump through dwelling values fairly quick, and Our loyal listeners will know we like to get into houses and units and separate it as well, so I’ll very quickly just go through dwelling values, as we, we’ve mentioned, there’s been a, a bit of a fall, 0.6% in July, according to a totality.
20:35: so the median dwelling value now sits at $1,104,094 and down slightly from 1,118,306.
20:45: , a month earlier as well.
20:48: So, also prop track data shows a similar trend, with Brisbane dwelling values down 0.3% over July.
20:55: I will say that, Brisbane still, not falling as much as cities like Sydney and Melbourne, Sydney over the month, a further reduction of 1.4% in dwelling values, Melbourne, a further reduction of 1.2%. So their quarterly growth figures are now 4% in Sydney,-3.4% in Melbourne.
21:17: And in fact, annual changes across those two cities have now tipped into negative territory, compared with annual dwelling changes in Brisbane, still 14.8%. We are not in a single property market across Australia, and of course, if you’re wanting further details, please head to the streamline Property Buyers website.
21:36: All of the data is broken down in our latest monthly update blog.
21:41: So head to streamlineproperty.com.au/blog, you’ll be able to find all of the Details on what’s happening in the market there as well.
21:50: Segments in the market, who’s, who’s where are they performing and where are they not?
21:54: I, I’d look at this graph and as Melinda mentioned, go and have a look at the blog.
21:59: some other states are, or other major cities, have got a lot different sort of, bigger results in certain areas, but yeah, definitely the lower, lower section is still probably performing highest.
22:10: Yeah, so the, the lowest 25% of property values showing the most resilience at this time, the Highest valued properties, they are those that are transacting in the top 25% of property values.
22:23: They are showing the largest declines in this market, which is not surprising.
22:28: typically, we, see that affordability is impacted more in the top end, due to higher interest rates as well.
22:37: So, it’s not something that is a surprise to us when we look at those trends, and these trends are consistent across most capital city markets throughout the country.
22:47: OK, let’s jump into house values.
22:50: so house values fell 0.6% in July.
22:54: median house value now at $1,207,039.
23:00: Quarterly growth, turned at 0.9% from 1.1% a month earlier, and annual growth eased slightly to 14.3% from 16.8%. That’s right.
23:12: So again, compared to the big capitals of Sydney and Melbourne, Brisbane faring quite well.
23:19: Sydney showed a 1.7% decline in house values over the month, and Melbourne a 1.4% decline in house values.
23:27: What is interesting is some of those smaller capitals are still more resilient.
23:31: Adelaide tipped into negative growth territory for houses throughout July.
23:36: with-2% growth, Perth just holding on, 0.1% growth in Perth.
23:42: So, lots of different markets moving in the direction of negative growth, some still just holding on, tipping just above, the, the, the growth maintenance of 0% across the month.
23:55: So, all markets across the country appear to be slowing down off the back of the changes to the budget, which is not surprising given the change in, confidence and also the shift in terms of the volume of investors in the market.
24:09: And like it has for a while now, the Brisbane, the unit market values held up a little bit stronger than houses.
24:16: It has outperformed, as we’ve said for quite a long time now.
24:19: So unit values fell 0.4% in July to a median value of 875,135.
24:27: And yeah, I mean that it’s not a surprise we’ve seen both that change, but you’re still, you’ve got your annual growth of 17.1% units in Brisbane.
24:38: Yeah, so unit values now just back to where we were three months ago in terms of the peak.
24:42: I think that’s important.
24:44: When we, when you talk about that and we say, OK, it has, has had a, it’s literally where it was three months ago.
24:49: That’s right.
24:50: And so, you know, Anyone that perhaps has purchased in the last two months might be worried that they’re in a position of negative equity.
24:56: Not every property follows a median value trend, and I don’t think that that’s the way people should consider a median value trend, either.
25:04: It really is, important to understand.
25:07: There’s so many nuances in the market at the moment that you cannot just assume every property follows that median trend.
25:15: The rental market, I did touch on this earlier, very, very, very tight, so vacancy rates across Greater Brisbane remained at, 0.9% for July, unchanged.
25:25: Yeah, really tight vacancy, so obviously this will put, more pressure on those rents.
25:32: Annually, we’ve seen house rents in Brisbane increase 6.7%. That’s grown again, month on month, and unit rents annually, that’s 6.2%. So, again, we’re seeing monthly increases again in those annual rates of growth in rents.
25:49: I know that the Fed Budget, suggested rents will only increase by $2 per week.
25:56: we are seeing and hearing from many people throughout Brisbane, that when their properties are coming up for rental renewals, renewals, there’s, there’s quite significant jumps.
26:06: Now, this is not because of the budget, and it is not because, landlords are being greedy.
26:12: It’s simply because those vacancy rates remain extremely low.
26:17: There’s simply not enough rental properties in Brisbane.
26:20: And because of that, the demand for rental properties is really pushing those prices up in a market where supply is so tight, and those vacancy rate numbers of 0.9%, that’s our indication of supply.
26:33: If we start to see more investors sell, or fewer investors buy into the market, we might see those.
26:39: Vacancy rates tighten further, which will put more upward pressure on rents in some segments of the market.
26:45: What we’ve quoted is all of Greater Brisbane, we’re definitely seeing more price pressure in some areas of Brisbane, where vacancy rates are even tighter than 0.9%. In some suburbs, there’s hardly anything at all available to rent.
26:59: And we’re seeing more upward pressure on prices.
27:01: In other suburbs, there’s more variety for tenants, and that, of course, puts downward pressure on prices.
27:06: So again, the rental market, not a single market across the city, and if you are a tenant looking to rent, just have a look at how many listings are available in the suburb that you are looking to rent.
27:17: That’s gonna give you an understanding of, you know, any potential negotiating opportunity for those rents.
27:22: If there’s simply just not, not any competing stock, it’s gonna be harder.
27:26: You’ll probably find you’re up against.
27:28: Small tenants competing for limited properties.
27:31: I, interesting, we, we, we were at the Reba Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia, conference, earlier in the week, and I know that, Melinda being a real data person, I was going to say the data nerd, but, Tim, Tim Lawless, presented, a very, very detailed, report on all of Australian markets, obviously jumped into Brisbane a little bit as well, but it was interesting, and we’ll try and, we’ll reach out to Tim and might even get him back on the podcast, but it was interesting to, to have a chat with him and see, What is actually happening in different levels and we talk about construction costs and all that sort of thing so we’ll we’ll do a bit of a summary on that and I’m sure you can probably throw our listeners a little bit of the things that Tim talked about.
28:19: just quickly, sorry, on on the rental market, so yields on that Greater Brisbane houses are now return at 3.2%. Up from 3.1% in June, while units returned 4% up from 3.9%. Sorry, I missed that, before I jumped off to the summary side.
28:37: Just for perspective, yields have increased slightly across both segments of the market because the median values have come back and because rents are still.
28:47: Growing.
28:47: That’s why we’re seeing those yields increase.
28:50: This is not a meaningful shift.
28:52: It’s certainly not enough to encourage investors to be coming back into the market, but it’s just a small shift because of those median calculations.
29:00: So, let’s jump into a few things.
29:02: I’ll throw a few things at you if you like, because I know you’ve got all the detail as well, Linda, but, when we talk about Brisbane and, and I know we talk about the fundamentals being there as well, unemployment.
29:14: So with that we’ve obviously got a lot of infrastructure that’s happening in Brisbane at the moment.
29:19: so obviously unemployment will, will remain low, I would say.
29:22: Yeah, there’s a lot of, you know, indicators that Brisbane will remain in a, a strong economy in the months and years ahead.
29:30: Of course, unemployment is very low.
29:33: That supports housing demand, because the risk of people losing their job is, is what can create instability in the housing market.
29:41: So, we’re not seeing any evidence of that in Brisbane.
29:44: So, we’re not gonna see forced sales because people no longer have a job, and therefore can no longer afford to pay their mortgage.
29:51: So, you can see how this Or relates back to property.
29:54: population growth, obviously, continues to occur, especially into Southeast Queensland.
29:59: Although we are past our peaks in terms of the net interstate migration, there’s still a strong inflow, and obviously, everyone that comes into Southeast Queensland, and certainly into Brisbane, they need to call somewhere home.
30:12: It either puts pressure on the rental market, or it creates demand for purchases.
30:17: And that also underpins, Brisbane’s long-term performance.
30:22: I will just point out a couple of stats.
30:25: Brisbane has $10.3 billion worth of infrastructure investment happening right now.
30:31: We’ve got $8 billion worth of commercial development, and $2.8 billion worth of residential development currently underway.
30:38: All of this infrastructure, all of this development requires workers.
30:44: construction workers are needed to build this infrastructure.
30:47: Those construction workers cannot spend their time building residential properties if they’re caught in those big infrastructure projects, and because of that, we simply are not going to be able to deliver the number of homes that are required to satisfy the demand that is in the market.
31:05: That’s that structural undersupply that we keep talking about, and it’s also not feasible for a lot of the higher, Development or high density developments, those, those high rise units, it’s simply not feasible for developers to be bringing affordable stock like that to the market.
31:22: What we’re finding in Brisbane is that a lot of the, the high density developments are targeting a premium price point.
31:30: They’re targeting a downsize a market that can afford to pay for a premium product.
31:35: We’re not seeing affordable product come to the market in that space.
31:38: And I think add on to that obviously when you talked about the the infrastructure that happening we don’t have the workers construction costs are still very, very high.
31:47: So it’s a massive challenge for developers to say well we can go and do it.
31:51: I mean PVC has just gone through the roof.
31:53: other construction costs and material costs are still very high, and now labor costs, a massive amount of pressure on the labor costs as well, which will continue to push that, New construction costs higher, which, which obviously then pushes towards established property.
32:10: Yeah, the gap between established and new widens and, and then that makes established property look more affordable comparatively as well.
32:18: And you know, at the end of the day we, These types of, these are the things that put a floor under under Brisbane property prices, you know, there’s a lot of negativity in the market at the moment about, you know, property prices falling, and, you know, some people, perhaps they’re hoping, or perhaps they’re wishful thinking, or perhaps they’re just negative, people, you know, predicting these huge price falls.
32:43: The reality is, when you understand what, what fundamentally, Makes up property markets in terms of the supply and demand metrics, there’s, there’s actually a flaw upon which that property value simply just won’t move, below, and, and when we see confidence return in a market, typically we see those demand, the, the demand kick back in, and that demand has not disappeared, it’s just sitting on the sidelines, and I think in an undersupplied market like Brisbane, There is only so much that, people will be willing to, to, to do, to sit out of the market before they’re like, OK, I’m ready to jump back in.
33:22: And people think that, you know, all properties do follow a median value trend.
33:26: That’s simply not the case, and Brisbane’s simply not one property market either.
33:31: We will continue to see scarcity, or scarce properties attract, or, or, Not attract a premium necessarily, but, they’ll be more resilient during any downturn.
33:44: we will probably see areas where there’s been a lot of investor activity over previous years.
33:50: They’re the areas that perhaps maybe more at risk of price retraction, across multiple properties, simply because if that target market.
34:01: Or that buyer demographic is no longer there, and the local demographic cannot afford to buy any properties that become available for sale, that puts downward pressure on prices.
34:10: So, this is why, when investing in property, it’s so important to understand who the next buyer is going to be.
34:16: We’ve now seen very clear evidence of how policy change can really impact markets, and therefore, if If you’re not, if you’ve not targeted a product that appeals to an owner-occupier, or that owner-occupier can’t afford to buy any property in that area, that’s real risk, and that’s not something that, you know, is a pleasant situation for anyone to be in.
34:37: Yeah, I think, look, my, my summary on it as well, I, I think there’s just a, a speed hump, on the road that we’ve sort of, we’ve hit.
34:44: I, as, as Melinda touched on, we’re personally happy to, to continue to invest in the market.
34:49: I believe long term wise, I, I know that we said in the podcast, I don’t know when it was, probably 3 or 4 years ago, watched the unit space, here in Brisbane.
34:58: I’m not a, I’m not a gambling person, I’m not a betting man, but, with the Brisbane, the Olympics coming to Brisbane in 2032, the fundamentals that are there, I think there’ll be people kicking himself in about 5 years’ time if they haven’t actually acted when they can, when there’s a lot of people fearful and they’re sort of sitting back on the sideline.
35:17: I think when it does change, get ready for another busy, busy time in Brisbane.
35:21: That’s my thoughts.
35:23: And don’t, sorry, don’t invest for tax purposes.
35:25: That’s probably the other thing.
35:26: Everyone’s everyone’s talking about the tax, tax reasons, and I’m like, wow, that is not a reason to, to buy or not to buy.
35:32: Yeah, I think it’s a great opportunity to take your time with the buying decision now because there.
35:38: There’s more opportunities available that you can consider.
35:41: We’re no longer in that fast reactive market that we were in 3 months ago.
35:46: We have more time to complete very thorough due diligence, de-risk any purchase, but ultimately, sift through what’s out there to find something that’s a great match, especially for owner-occupiers looking to upgrade.
35:58: Their homes, or first home buyers.
36:00: I know you may be nervous right now, but it is a good time to get into the market, especially if you’ve got a long-term horizon.
36:08: Once you’re in the market in a quality asset, it becomes more set and forget long-term, as long as you can continue to pay the mortgage.
36:16: That’s the most important thing that you need to consider.
36:18: Yep, and if you need help, as I’ve said so many times, we’re free to talk to, just reach out to the team at Streamline Property Buyers, more than happy to have a chat.
36:26: if we can help, we will, but yeah, more than happy to tell people what we think and, and how, how we work as well.
36:32: So, fantastic market update completed, and I will let you wrap it up as I normally do so.
36:40: thanks very much for listening, everyone.
36:42: as I have said, I’ll let Melinda wrap it up like normal, and until next time, take care and bye for now.
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